In a report titled Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific H2 2024 Credit Outlook, Moody's Ratings said Indonesia, the Philippines and India led the way in terms of growth in first half of 2024 and should continue to outperform pre-Covid growth numbers.
Earlier in fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent in the previous year. It is driven by gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure program gained further traction even as private consumption remained subdued.
It said despite the economy's strong potential, there is a risk that the pace of investment in India's manufacturing and infrastructure sectors could slow because of limited economic liberalization or slower policy implementation.
This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May.
The downgraded rating is in speculative or junk category reflecting default risk. It signifies that even though financial commitments are currently being met, the sovereign is vulnerable to high credit risk.
After a long clamour for fiscal stimulus, the government had on October 12 come up with measures with direct fiscal support to people and states and to generate demand.
Moody's Investors Service said on Friday that economic damage as a result of India's coronavirus lockdown will likely be extensive and reflect the country's inherent economic vulnerability and fiscal constraints.
In its Global Market Outlook 2020-21 released on Thursday, Moody's said that with a lower growth rate, there would be a sharp fall in income which could further weaken the domestic demand and the pace of recovery in the next fiscal.
Moody's Investors Service has placed Yes Bank's long-term foreign currency issuer rating of B2 under review, with the direction uncertain, citing "slowness in raising new capital". "The placing of Yes Bank's deposit rating of B2 under review reflects Moody's expectation that the bank's standalone viability is getting increasingly challenged by its slowness in raising new capital," the US-based agency has said in a statement.
The bank has been finding the going tough since August last year, after the RBI refused to clear the reappointment of co-promoter and chief executive Rana Kapoor on concerns around corporate governance and poor lending practices.
On November 20, the Reserve Bank superseded the DHFL board and appointed an administrator and said it would begin bankruptcy process for the crippled company that owes close to Rs 90,000 to the system.
The ongoing US-China trade war is headed for further escalation, global rating firm Moody's said on Wednesday. "Of the three plausible scenarios for US-China trade tensions, the risk of a 'hardened stance' scenario has increased," Moody's said in a note and added that any further deterioration in tensions could serve as potential catalyst for a severe downturn.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week issued a prudential framework for resolution of stressed assets, which give lenders 30 days to review a borrower account before labeling it as a non-performing asset (NPA) in case of default.
In 2017, the US-based rating agency upped India's rating to 'Baa2' from 'Baa3', changing outlook to 'stable' from 'positive', and said reforms would help stabilise rising levels of debt. Deviating from the fiscal consolidation path. As per the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, the government in February's interim budget pegged the fiscal deficit for 2019-20 at 3.4 per cent of GDP, as against the original target of 3.1 per cent.
In the interim budget for 2019-20, the government proposed to increase spending to provide income support for small farmers and introduce a middle-class tax cut in the run up to the general election between April and May.
The agency said that the GDP forecast has been cut down due to higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions.
Standard & Poor's on Friday maintained its sovereign rating on India stable at ‘BBB-’ while keeping its outlook for India stable.
Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn debt-laden Reliance Communications' corporate family rating, citing a missed scheduled payment related to the company's dollar bond.
While no specific deadlines have been specified, the government is hopeful that the program will be rolled out soon, marking a big step towards expanding the financial and digital mainstream.
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