Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Election 2024 Exit Poll HIGHLIGHTS: BJP may spring a surprise with 5-7 seats, DMK ahead

The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win the lone Lok Sabha seat of Puducherry, as per India TV-CNX Exit Poll. The battle was among  candidates representing the Congress, AIADMK, and BJP. The Congress party ahd nominated its sitting Member of Parliament, V Vaithilingam, to defend his position. Going head-to-head with Vaithilingam is G Thamizhvendhan, the candidate from AIADMK, and A Namassivayam, carried the BJP's banner. Notably, Congress entered the fray as part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, a coalition comprising the DMK, Left parties, and the VCK, with an  consolidate its support base and amplify its electoral prospects. 

 According to India TV-CNX Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win 5 to 7 seats out of 39 parliamentary seats in the state. Meanwhile, DMK is set to get 16-18 seats.

Party-wise predictions for seats

• BJP: 5-7
• DMK: 16-18
• Congress: 6-8
• AIADMK: 0-1
• Others: 8-1

The exit poll results for the 39 parilamentary seats in Tamil Nady will be released shortly.  India TV news channel will provide the most reliable and accurate results for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024.

BJP Tamil Nadu chief K Annamalai said that the DMK and its allies have accepted defeat. "Why is CM MK Stalin not attending the INDIA bloc meeting? INDIA Alliance and Congress have accepted their defeat by saying that Congress representatives will not participate in the exit polls. They know that PM Narendra Modi is going to become the PM of our country for the third time..." asked Annamalai. The exit poll for 39 seats in the state will be declared shortly 

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and ruling DMK President MK Stalin urged party workers to "remain vigilant during the vote counting process". He also said that June 4 will mark the beginning of a new dawn for India. "June 4th will mark the beginning of a new dawn for India, said Stalin. He concluded, "May the fascist BJP fall! May INDIA triumph!" he added. 

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin exuded confidence and said that the I.N.D.I.A bloc has met the expectations of the people and June 4 will mark the beginning of a new dawn for India. In a post on X, Stalin said, "Our INDIA bloc, formed to defeat the ten-year fascist regime of the BJP and save India, has met the expectations of the people and stands on the cusp of victory. It has rallied a formidable coalition of democratic forces against the BJP, who thought there was nobody to challenge them. This alliance now offers hope to all Indians in the electoral arena."

Virudhunagar: The contest in this constituency was between incumbent Congress MP B Manickam Tagore and two high-profile candidates- actor and producer Radikaa Sarathkumar of the BJP and V Vijayaprabhakaran of the DMDK, who is the son of late actor Vijayakant. The constituency known as the birthplace of K Kamraj, one of the tallest leaders in Tamil Nadu politics, lies adjacent to Madurai. Tagore has won twice from the constituency.

Ramanathapuram: Former Tamil Nadu chief minister O Paneerselvam (OPS), contested as an independent candidate from this constituency. He was pitted against incumbent MP and IUML (ally of the DMK) candidate K Navaskani, as well as P Jeyaperumal of the AIADMK. The BJP supported OPS in this election.  In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, K Navaskani from IUML won the seat with a margin of 127,122 votes.

Sivaganga constituency witnessed a three-cornered contest with sitting Congress MP Karti Chidambaram took on BJP's Devanathan Yadav, a businessman, and A Xavierd of AIADMK. Karti, son of former Union Minister P Chidambaram, is seeking victory from the seat for the third time. In the 2019 polls, his son Karti trounced BJP National Secretary H Raja with a big majority of around 3.3 lakh votes.

The Nilgiris Lok Sabha Election of 2024 witnessed a clash of political heavyweights, with Union Minister and BJP candidate L Murugan competed against DMK's incumbent A Raja and AIADMK's D Lokesh Tamilselvan. The Nilgiris constituency has historically favoured the Congress, with seven victories, followed by the DMK with three wins, and the AIADMK and BJP each securing victory twice. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Raja emerged victorious, defeating AIADMK's Thiyagarajan with a significant margin of over 2 lakh votes. Raja garnered 5,47,832 votes.

Chennai Central constituency witnessed a head-to-head electoral battle between the BJP and DMK. The former Union minister and current DMK MP contested against the BJP's Vinoj P Selvam and DMDK's B Parthasarathy. Maran had previously secured victories in this constituency in 2004 and 2009 as well. Notably, he served as the Union Minister of Communications and Information Technology in the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government back in 2004.

In Chennai South, incumbent DMK MP Tamizhachi Thangapandian was up against former Telangana Governor and BJP leader Tamilisai Soundararajan, while the AIADMK  fielded ex-MP Dr J Jayavardhan, who won from here in 2014. The constituency has been a DMK stronghold with the party winning it five times. 

In Thoothukkudi, DMK's Kanimozhi contested against AIADMK's R Sivasami Velumani and Tamil Maanila Congress-Moopanar this time. Kanimozhi comfortably won the seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with a margin of 347,209 votes. He had defeated former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan by over 3.47 lakh votes.

Coimbatore is the hub of western Tamil Nadu and it is the most keenly watched constituency in the state this season. State BJP chief K Annamalai was in the poll fray from this seat and faced DMK leader Ganapathy P Rajkumar, a former mayor, and AIADMK's Singai Ramachandran. He also faced a challenge from the Tamil nationalist, Naam Tamilar Katchi in the four-way contest with anti-DMK-Congress votes split into three. Jharkhand Governor CP Radhakrishnan, who was the BJP candidate from Coimbatore in the past two Lok Sabha elections of 2019 and 2014, had suffered back-to-back defeats. The seat is currently held by CPI's PR Natarajan. In his manifesto for the constituency, Annamalai, who quit the IPS to join politics, promised the establishment of the Indian Institute of Management, the offices of the National Investigation Agency (NIA), and the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) in Coimbatore city.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has competed on 23 seats in Tamil Nadu, with its smaller allies contested the remaining 16 seats. On the other hand, I.N.D.I.A. bloc partners Congress contested on 9 seats and DMK on 22 seats,  both the CPI and CPI(M) contested on two seats each.

India TV news channel will provide the most reliable and accurate exit poll for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. The exit poll has been conducted in collaboration with the CNX agency. In addition, the exit polls will be available on the India TV platforms listed below:

• Live TV: https://www.indiatvnews.com/livetv
• English Website: https://www.indiatvnews.com/
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/IndiaTVNewsEnglish
• WhatsApp Channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va4LODS8PgsPzUEUt31t

You can also watch the live streaming on social media platforms:

• X formerly Twitter: https://twitter.com/indiatv
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IndiaTV

Exit polls are important for several reasons. Firstly, they provide an early indication of election results before the official count is completed. Media outlets use this information to inform their audience about potential outcomes, generating significant public interest. Additionally, exit polls can also influence stock markets as well as the political discourse in the country. It is important to interpret Exit Polls with caution, as they can be affected by sampling errors, biases, and differences in voter demographics. While they provide useful insights and help set expectations, they should not be viewed as definitive predictors of election outcomes.

Exit polls are quick surveys conducted immediately after people vote, in an attempt to gauge the sentiments of voters following the exercise of their right to vote. Unlike regular opinion polls done before elections, exit polls ask voters who they actually voted for, making them more accurate. They typically start being released right after voting ends on final election day and are conducted by interviewing voters as they leave polling stations. In India, exit polls were almost developed indigenously by the pioneering Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi during the 1960s.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK-led alliance secured a landslide victory in the state, capturing 38 out of the 39 seats. The DMK itself won 24 seats, while the Congress claimed eight, and both the CPI and CPM secured two seats each. Additionally, the VCK and IUML each won one seat. The BJP drew a blank in 2019.

There were several Key candidates in this year's Lok Sabha elections in the state. In Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's (DMK) Dayanidhi Maran, TR Baalu, A Raja, Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, Congress candidates Manickam Tagore, Karti P Chidambaram, S Jothimani and Vijay Vasanth are in the fray. Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) K Annamalai, L Murugan, Tamilisai Soundararajan, TR Paarivendhar, Pon Radhakrishnan and Nainar Nagendran are also trying to open the saffron party's account from the southern state. In 2019, the BJP failed to get any seats from Tamil Nadu. Other important candidates include TTV Dhinakaran (AMMK), O Panneerselvam (Independent), K Krishnasamy (AIADMK), J Jayavardhan (AIADMK), Durai Vaiko (MDMK) and Thol Thirumavalavan (VCK). 

Elections to all the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state was held in the first phase on April 19 to decide the fate of 950 candidates. According to the Election Commission, as many as 6.23 crore voters exercised their franchise in nearly 68,000 polling stations. The BJP aimed to significantly advance its position in a state where it has never secured more than four seats. Its 2019 attempt was unsuccessful, with its ally AIADMK winning just one seat in Theni by a slim margin of 6.2 per cent. While the DMK-led alliance is hopeful of repeating its 2019 performance. The polls are also crucial for AIADMK which came out of BJP-led NDA in September last year.