Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2024: The stakeholders in Tamil Nadu's election have faced a prolonged wait since the state went to polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha election on April 19. This election is fundamentally a contest among the major political alliances: the DMK-led I.N.D.I.A bloc, the AIADMK-led coalition, the BJP-led NDA, and the Naam Tamilar Katchi. A voter turnout of 69.72 per cent was recorded in the state in the general election 2024. This high level of participation reflects the intense interest and engagement of the electorate in this crucial political battle, underscoring the significance of the alliances and their "competing visions" for the state and the nation.
India TV-CNX Exit Poll prediction
According to India TV-CNX Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win 5 to 7 seats out of 39 parliamentary seats in the state. Meanwhile, the DMK is set to get 16-18 seats. The DMK's alliance Congress may get 6 to 8 seats in the state and the AIADMK is also projected to get at least one seat in the state.
Party-wise predictions for seats
- BJP: 5-7
- DMK: 16-18
- Congress: 6-8
- AIADMK: 0-1
- Others: 8-1
Puducherry Exit Poll Results 2024
The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win the lone Lok Sabha seat of Puducherry, as per India TV-CNX Exit Poll. The saffron party had fielded A Namassivayam from this seat. The battle was among candidates representing the Congress, AIADMK, and BJP. The Congress had fielded its sitting Member of Parliament, V Vaithilingam, while AIADMK had gone with G Thamizhvendhan.
What happened in 2019 and 2014 elections?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK-led alliance secured a landslide victory in the state, capturing 38 out of the 39 seats. The DMK itself won 24 seats, while the Congress claimed eight, and both the CPI and CPM secured two seats each. Additionally, the VCK and IUML each won one seat. The BJP drew a blank in 2019. In 2014 general elections, the AIADMK led by its then-general secretary J Jayalalithaa had won a spectacular victory, taking 37 of the 39 seats. The BJP and the PMK had won one seat each in the state.
What are Exit Polls?
Exit polls are quick surveys conducted immediately after people vote, in an attempt to gauge the sentiments of voters following the exercise of their right to vote. Unlike regular opinion polls done before elections, exit polls ask voters who they actually voted for, making them more accurate. They typically start being released right after voting ends on final election day and are conducted by interviewing voters as they leave polling stations. In India, exit polls were almost developed indigenously by the pioneering Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi during the 1960s.
Why are Exit Polls important?
Exit polls are important for several reasons. Firstly, they provide an early indication of election results before the official count is completed. Media outlets use this information to inform their audience about potential outcomes, generating significant public interest. Additionally, exit polls can also influence stock markets as well as the political discourse in the country. It is important to interpret Exit Polls with caution, as they can be affected by sampling errors, biases, and differences in voter demographics. While they provide useful insights and help set expectations, they should not be viewed as definitive predictors of election outcomes.
