All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) general secretary and former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami on Tuesday met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the national capital amid talks that his party might revive its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
The AIADMK leader discussed a host of issues, including the alleged imposition of Hindi in Tamil Nadu, with Shah and conveyed his party's views on them.
The meeting between the two leaders assumes significance as AIADMK was an ally of BJP in NDA before parting ways in 2023, and the two parties are gearing up for Assembly polls next year.
In the past two elections to Lok Sabha and previous Assembly polls, the AIADMK has not been able to put up a strong show and has also faced factionalism. The BJP is also keen to improve its prospects in Tamil Nadu after a determined effort in the last Lok Sabha polls in which it could not win a seat in the southern state.
Why does AIADMK want an alliance with BJP?
There is a view that if the AIADMK and the BJP revive their alliance, they will put up a strong challenge to the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led INDIA bloc in the state. The AIADMK has seen erosion of its vote share over the years.
Amid these developments, let's take a look at how the BJP-AIADMK alliance performed in the past.
How did the BJP-AIADMK alliance perform in the past?
It should be noted that the AIADMK, the main opposition party in Tamil Nadu, parted ways with the BJP in September 2023 in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls following some differences with the saffron party's state leadership.
The differences came after senior AIADMK leaders called on JP Nadda and apprised him of the situation arising out of Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai's aggressive style of politics.
AIADMK leaders had also sought Annamalai's apology over his remark on Dravidian stalwart CN Annadurai or that he be replaced. However, Annamalai dialled down his criticism of the AIADMK for some time.
What happened to the alliance in the 1998 Lok Sabha polls?
The AIADMK, led by J Jayalalithaa, in the 1998 Lok Sabha elections formed an alliance with the BJP for the first time. The alliance performed extremely well and won 30 seats. The AIADMK won 18 seats, while the BJP won 3 seats. Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Subramanian Swamy's Janata Party (JP) and Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress (TRC) won the remaining seats. However, this partnership could only last for a year.
Then in June of the same year, a special court in Chennai ordered the attachment of movable properties valued at Rs 11.59 crore, which belonged to Jayalalitha and her associates. In a move to force the BJP-led central government to bail out Jayalalithaa, the MPs tried to impose more pressure on the Centre.
Members of the AIADMK, who were part of the ruling dispensation, started exerting pressure on the Centre to dismiss the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in the state. Despite managing to secure a stay on the attachment order, AIADMK leaders were reportedly livid with the Centre for not taking action to resolve her issues.
Subramanian Swamy had in April 1999 hosted a tea party in Delhi where Jayalalithaa sat next to Sonia Gandhi, held her hand for the benefit of the cameras, and called her an "old friend". She let it be known that the option was available. Later, going in alignment with Subramanian Swamy and having won the confidence of Sonia Gandhi, the AIADMK withdrew support to the Vajpayee government.
That time, the alliance collapsed because the Prime Minister reportedly refused to withdraw all pending corruption cases against Jayalalithaa and dismiss the DMK regime in Tamil Nadu. As a result, with a vote of confidence, the BJP lost the motion by one vote, and the government fell.
In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK and Congress joined hands, while the BJP allied with Karunanidhi's DMK.
What happened to the alliance in 2004?
Just before the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK parted ways with the NDA alliance, and the BJP formed an alliance with the AIADMK but failed to win any seats in Tamil Nadu. The BJP officially called off its pact with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu after the elections.
What happened after the death of Jayalalithaa in 2016?
After the death of Jayalalithaa in 2016, the AIADMK started to correct its ties with the BJP and subsequently formed an alliance with the BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 state Assembly polls.
Even as the NDA led by PM Narendra Modi won a second term in 2019, the alliance failed once again in Tamil Nadu, and the BJP drew a blank, while its ally AIADMK managed to win just one seat.
Some months before the 2021 Assembly elections, then Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and his deputy O Pannerselvam confirmed that AIADMK would continue its alliance with the BJP. However, they were ousted from power, and the DMK-Congress alliance stormed to form the government in the state.
The AIADMK won 66 seats, while the BJP managed to bag just 4 seats. The PMK, another alliance partner, won 5 seats.
What happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
The AIADMK and the BJP fought the 2024 Lok Sabha polls separately. The AIADMK contested the elections along with Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and Puthiya Tamilagam (PT), while the BJP led the alliance in the state for the first time. The AIADMK alliance received over 23% of the votes and drew a blank. The BJP, with allies such as PMK, TTV Dhinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK) and GK Vasan's Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), performed exceedingly well in the polls and received over 18% of the votes but failed to open its account. Several smaller outfits, including Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK), Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), Inthiya Makkal Kalvi Munnetra Kazhagam (IMKMK) and Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), contested on the BJP's symbol of lotus.
However, the DMK-led alliance won all 39 seats in the state due to this division of votes. India TV Digital's analysis reveals that if the AIADMK and the BJP alliances contested the 2024 polls together, then they could have won at least 12 Lok Sabha seats, including Arani, Chidambaram, Coimbatore, Cuddalore, Dharmapuri, Kallakurichi, Krishnagiri, Namakkal, Salem, Tenkasi, Tiruppur, Viluppuram and Virudhunagar.
It is this arithmetic that is now forcing both the AIADMK and the BJP to revive their alliance.