In numbers: Is Test cricket witnessing the golden era of fast bowling?

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"Wow!! What a bowling display that was from Pat Cummins & Josh Hazlewood here in Adelaide. Just outstanding. Have to feel for the Indian batsman as never saw that coming - it was one of those days where the batsman nicked everything & didn’t play and miss at all! Unbelievable..." - Shane Warne. 

World cricket stood in awe on Saturday as the pair of Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood orchestrated India's collapse, of a kind that had even left the Australian dug-out gobsmacked. Hazlewood, who as well was left "a bit stunned", compared the collapse to England's 67 in Leeds last Ashes while explaining that "we just bowled a touch fuller and maybe a touch straighter". It was fast bowling at its astounding best at the Adelaide Oval that left Indian batsmen little to act upon amid their poor techniques. The ball seamed less than expected on the pitch that quickened more on the third morning and the two hit the right areas to inflict the carnage. 

The past few years have witnessed quite a few impressive pace performances in the longest format - the Indian attack by far has been the most effective having capped off a sensational calendar year in 2019, the England attack has been strengthened by the inclusion of Jofra Archer. Meanwhile, there has been a brewing pace revolution in the Windies camp inspired by Jason Holder - leaving many to acknowledge that this recent period in Test cricket is experiencing a peak of fast bowling. 

In the last 96 Tests, going back to March 30 of 2018, pacers have combined to an average of 26.40. If the total of 2396 Tests, played so far since the inception in 1877, is broken down into periods of 100 Tests each, the present average of pacers is only second behind the figure attained in the first-ever phase, between 1877 and 1908, of 23.76. And, the present strike rate of pacers, of 52.9, is the best-ever among all the 24 such periods. 

The 24 periods comprises of 100 Tests each, starting 1877, barring two periods which have 101 Tests and two others which have 99 Tests owing to overlapping dates and the final period, from March 30 of 2018 till date (December 24, 2020), comprises of 96 Tests. 

The graph above shows that there has been a 13.21 per cent dip in the average of pacers from the present period (30 Mar 2018-till date) to the set of 10 Tests played before (12 Feb 2016-25 Mar 2018). In fact, the average of pacers have dipped below 30 for the first time since the period between February 19 of 1998 and June 17, 2000 (28.69) when three pacers - Glenn McGrath, Allan Donald, and Shaun Pollock - had finished with an excess of 100 wickets at an average of less than 22. The third best peak was, however, the period between March 11 of 1955 and January 3, 1961 (27.1) when all six top wicket-takers - Brian Statham, Fred Trueman, Alan Davidson, Sir Wes Hall, Fazal Mahmood, Neil Adcock - finished with average well less than 25. 

Top-5 periods when pace dominated spin

For spinners, they combined to average less than pacers in only one of the 24 periods - between 1877 and 1908 - when they had recorded a figure of 22.36. That also remained the only period when the average of spinners remained below 25, let alone below 30. The closest that spinners managed to the average of pacers was between July 29, 2011 and October 26, 2013 - 33.56 and 32.14 respectively. The gap has widened immensely in the present period where spinners average 33.92. The ratio of average, calculated to measure the dominance of pacers over spinners, is presently 0.77 for the present period which is the second-lowest after the period between July 21, 1988, and November 22, 1992, when the ratio measured 0.71. 

A similar pattern can also be seen when compared to the strike rates of pacers and spinners across the 24 periods. The strike rate of 54.8 recorded by spinners in the first period remains the only time when they picked wickets quicker than pacers (every 56.6 balls). However, when looked at the strike rate ratio of the two varieties, to measure the extent of their effectiveness in Test cricket in each period, the present figure of 0.83 stands tenth on the list topped by the period between July 21, 1988, and November 17, 1999, when the ratio was 0.66. 

Performance of pacers in the last period (30 Mar 2018-till date)

One of the major reasons behind this peak domination of pacers has been owing to the spread of this pace culture across the globe. As many as seven teams in the period from March 30, 2018, till date, has managed more than 150 Test wickets at an average less than 30. Sri Lanka narrowly missed the cut with 142 wickets at 31.88. The only period that has come close to the tally was that between February 12, 2016, and March 25, 2018, when five teams had fulfilled the aforementioned criteria. 

This phase, in Test cricket, indeed is one of the golden periods of pace bowling, so sit back and enjoy this rare dominance.