The race to make it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final remains intense after the latest drawn Test match between India and Australia at the Gabba in Brisbane. A drawn Test means both teams witnessed a team in their PCT. Australia's PCT now reads 58.89 as they are in second position while the Rohit Sharma-led team India are in third place with a PCT of 55.89.
India will have to win both their Test matches against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney to qualify directly regardless of other results. Two wins will take their PCT to 60.53 and will remain above Australia even if they win the two-match series against Sri Lanka 2-0. This means, any result other than a 3-1 series win will lead to India depending on results from other series as well.
Here are the scenarios for India to make it to the WTC Final
1. If India win the series 2-1
Australia should beat Sri Lanka only by a 1-0 margin OR South Africa lose the two-match series to Pakistan 1-0 at home.
2. If India draw the series 2-2
In this case, India will finish on 55.26. Australia will need to lose to Sri Lanka by either 1-0 or 2-0 OR South Africa lose to Pakistan 2-0 at home
3. If India draw the series 1-1
In this case, India's PCT will be 53.51. South Africa should lose to Pakistan 2-0 OR Australia lose to Sri Lanka 1-0 or Australia draw with Sri Lanka 0-0. In case, the AUS vs SL series ends in 0-0 draw, then Australia and India will be level on 53.51%. However, India will make it to the WTC final on the basis of more series wins in the 2023-25 cycle.
Meanwhile, India cannot afford to lose the five-match series against Australia at any cost now. A 3-1 or 2-1 series result in favour of Australia will kick India out of the WTC Final race completely regardless of other results.
