Australia annihilated New Zealand in their T20 World Cup 2024 clash at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium on Tuesday, October 8. Defending a score of 148, the defending champions bowled out the White Ferns for just 88 to register a massive net-run-rate boosting win.
New Zealand, who had handed India a drubbing in their tournament opener, would be ruing themselves for not getting closer to the target in a bid to save their NRR and would remember the nightmares of 2023 when they could not qualify for the semifinals due to their inferior NRR to South Africa. Notably, India's chances of qualifying for the semifinals have been affected by this result.
How do India's chances to qualify for the semifinals stand now?
Australia are now the top-ranked team in Group A with four points and an NRR of +2.524. Pakistan are ranked second with two points in two games and an NRR of +0.555. New Zealand are third with one win in two games and an NRR of -0.050. India are in fourth place with two points in two games and an NRR of -1.217.
For India to qualify for the semifinals they would need to beat both Sri Lanka and Australia and get to six points and have a better net run rate than ideally New Zealand as Pakistan might not get to six (they have to face Australia too). The Women in Blue will face Sri Lanka on October 9 and Australia on October 13.
New Zealand have to face two weaker opponents than they have faced. They will be up against Sri Lanka on October 12 and then against Pakistan on October 14. If they win both games, they will get to six too.
As written above, India will play their last league game, against Australia, on October 13, while New Zealand will face Pakistan in their final group game a day later on October 14. Even if India beat the Aussies and get to six points, the White Ferns will be aware of what exactly they need to do and by how much margin they need to beat the Women in Green on the next day to stay ahead of the Harmanpreet Kaur team on NRR.
The other way for the Women in Blue to qualify if they beat Sri Lanka and lose to Australia (staying on four points) is that New Zealand should also lose one game, and ideally to Sri Lanka as Pakistan will also get on four points then, bringing NRR into the equation.
The road for India is not easy ahead. In all likelihood, they must win against Sri Lanka and the Aussies and ideally by some decent margins so that New Zealand cannot catch up with their NRR if they too win both of their games.
