September inflation hits 9-month high: Will it delay RBI's rate cut plans?
Business | October 15, 2024 13:48 ISTIndia’s retail inflation surged to 5.49% in September 2024, driven by food prices, casting doubt on the RBI’s December rate cut plans.
India’s retail inflation surged to 5.49% in September 2024, driven by food prices, casting doubt on the RBI’s December rate cut plans.
As inflation rates fluctuate, analysts are likely to closely monitor future trends and the potential need for adjustments in monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India.
Wholesale inflation: As per the government data, inflation in food items shot up to 11.53 per cent last month against 3.11 per cent in August. This was led by 48.73 per cent inflation in vegetables as against (-)10.01 per cent in August.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, maintaining its focus on inflation control while balancing economic growth.
The Bank of England has maintained its interest rate at 5%, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut to 4.8%. Inflation concerns in the UK, particularly in the services sector, have driven this cautious approach.
The rate cut ends a 14-month period where rates were held steady. This duration is longer than three of the last six Fed "hold" periods but falls short of the 15-month pause before the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
notably, the retail inflation target set by the RBI is 4% with a tolerance band of +/- 2 percentage points, meaning that the target is within the range of 2% to 6%. As per the government data, industrial production grew 4.8 per cent in July against 6.2 per cent expansion a year ago.
The reduction in wholesale inflation is attributed to a drop in prices of key commodities, including food and fuel. Lower input costs and decreased demand pressures have contributed to the cooling of inflationary trends.
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India's retail inflation eased to 3.54 per cent in July, falling below the Reserve Bank of India's 4 per cent target for the first time in years.
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The IMF has upgraded India's GDP growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year 2024–25, citing anticipated improvements in rural consumption. Despite maintaining global growth projections at 3.2%, the IMF cautioned about risks including inflation and trade tensions, urging prudent monetary policies.
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Wholesale inflation in India reached a 16-month high of 3.36% in June, driven by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, and manufactured items. This marks the fourth consecutive month of increasing inflation, up from 2.61% in May.
Retail inflation increased to 5.08 per cent in June as kitchen items became dearer, according to government data released today. The industrial production grew 5. 9 per cent in May this year, mainly due to good show by mining and power sectors.
Notably, India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, has become the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude since the West halted purchases and imposed sanctions against Moscow in the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The Lok Sabha witnessed some fiery debates in Lok Sabha on Monday as Rahul Gandhi addressed the House and attacked the government over a range of issues. Some of his remarks drew reactions from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and other ministers.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das revealed the next set of monetary policies on Friday morning. Earlier, experts anticipated that the RBI will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, unchanged since February 2023, due to inflation concerns.
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While formulating its bi-monthly monetary policy, the RBI considers consumer inflation. It notes that uncertainties surrounding food prices continue to exert influence on the inflation trajectory in the foreseeable future.
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