NASA has increased the estimated risk of an asteroid which is expected to collide with Earth in 2032. The latest calculations reveal a 3.1 per cent chance of impact, up from the previous 2.6 per cent. While the likelihood of a strike remains low, a newly released simulation of the asteroid’s potential impact is going viral, which showcases the devastating effect it could have on a city.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: What do we know about the apocalypse so far?
How big will the Asteroid be?
The asteroid, which has been named 2024 YR4, has an estimated diameter of 177 feet (54 meters)—which is roughly the size of a tall building.
While it is said to be not ‘large enough’ to cause global destruction, experts have released a warning and stated that it could wipe out an entire city if it were to collide with Earth.
When could the impact happen?
NASA’s data suggests that December 22, 2032, is the potential impact date if the asteroid were to hit Earth. However, the odds remain 1 in 32, meaning there is still a 96.9 per cent chance it will miss Earth entirely.
How was it discovered?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Shortly after, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a formal alert when the impact probability exceeded 1 per cent in January.
Since then, the odds have fluctuated but are gradually increasing.
NASA experts say ‘No need to panic’
Despite the rising probability of impact, experts have an urge to calm down and further emphasized that such figures often change over time as more data is collected.
Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist at the Planetary Society, reassured the public, saying:
"I'm not panicking. Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel great, but as we gather more data, the probability will likely drop to zero."
Even with the current risk estimate of 3.1%, scientists believe the chances will eventually decrease as they refine the asteroid’s trajectory.
Shocking impact simulation goes viral
What the animation reveals
A video simulation which has been created by 3D animator Alvaro Gracia Montoya has captured global attention, by showing a giant asteroid smashing into a metropolis, leveling everything in its path.
An X user shared the video, warning:
“NASA has increased the chance of a major asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, up from 2.6%. This asteroid is big enough to wipe out an entire city.”
The dramatic footage has sparked discussion across the globe, about planetary defence and whether Earth is prepared for a potential impact.
Could the asteroid hit the moon instead?
Interestingly, scientists have also identified a 0.3 per cent chance that instead of Earth, Asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon. While the risk remains extremely low, it raises further questions about the asteroid’s exact trajectory.
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