Rajasthan Opinion Poll: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may storm back to power in Rajasthan this time with an absolute majority in next month’s Assembly elections, says India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, results of which were telecast today on the news channel.
The opinion poll projections show in a House of 200 Assembly seats, the BJP may win 125 seats, compared to the 73 seats it had won five years ago. The ruling party Congress may win only 72 seats, compared to the 100 seats it had won five years ago, says the survey. 'Others’ including independents and regional parties may win only three seats, compared to the 27 seats they had won in 2018.
Vote share projections show the BJP may get 44.92 per cent, the Congress may get 40.08 per cent, and 'Others' may get 15 per cent in Rajasthan. In the 2018 elections, the BJP got 38.77 per cent, the Congress got 39.3 per cent and 'Others' got 21.93 per cent votes.
Region-wise seat projections
Region-wise India TV-CNX poll projections show:
- In Jaipur-Dholpur having 48 seats, the BJP may win 28, the Congress may win 19 and others may win one seat.
- In Tonk-Kota having 24 seats, the BJP may win 13 seats leaving the remaining 11 seats to the Congress.
- In Marwar having 56 seats, the BJP may win 40 seats, the Congress may win 15 and others may win one seat.
- In Mewar having 48 seats, the BJP may win 32 seats, the Congress may win 15 seats and one seat may go to others.
- In Shekhawati having 24 seats, the BJP and the Congress may share 12 seats each.
Preference for Chief Minister
The survey findings show Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot leading with 32.5 per cent of respondents wishing him to continue in the post. Gehlot is closely followed by BJP leader Vasundhara Raje with 26.98 per cent of respondents showing their preference for her as the next CM.
Congress leader Sachin Pilot comes third with 12.35 per cent, while BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is fourth with 10.07 per cent. BJP leader Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore is fifth with 7.81 per cent, while another BJP leader Diya Kumari comes sixth with only 3 per cent. Other leaders get 7.29 per cent support in all.
Key findings
50.18 per cent of voters gave a 0-4 score to Ashok Gehlot’s performance on a scale of 1-10, while 38.9 per cent gave an 8-10 score. 10.92 per cent of voters gave a 5-7 score. 42.18 per cent of voters said they were fully dissatisfied with the performance of their local MLA, while 25.53 per cent said they were somewhat satisfied. 20.18 per cent said they were fully satisfied. 47 per cent of voters said earlier BJP government had performed better in Rajasthan, while 40.12 per cent said the present Congress government performed better.
Unemployment was the biggest issue among 21.05 per cent of voters, while 18.51 per cent of voters said inflation. 18.42 per cent said law and order, while 16.51 per cent said development. 9.45 per cent of voters said corruption was the biggest issue.
Asked which party’s welfare scheme (guarantees) was good, 52.18 per cent opted for the BJP while 40.27 per cent opted for the Congress. On a question put before OBC voters only, a whopping 71 per cent of OBC voters said there must be a caste-based census in Rajasthan, while 20.52 per cent of OBC voters said 'No'. 8.48 per cent of voters said 'Can’t say'.
57.15 per cent of voters said the Gehlot-Pilot tussle could cause harm for the Congress in the elections, while 36.64 per cent said 'No'. A whopping 55.98 per cent of voters said they were dissatisfied with the role of the state government during the Covid pandemic, while 32.39 per cent of voters said they were satisfied.
India TV-CNX Opinion Poll
The opinion poll was carried out by CNX among 10,000 respondents (5,026 males and 4,974 females) across 100 Assembly constituencies. The respondents were selected randomly for a sample population encompassing diverse professions, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, petty shopkeepers, migrant labourers, registered medical practitioners, auto and taxi drivers, real estate dealers, among others. The age group ranged from 18 to 60 years old.
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