In the 2009 parliamentary elections, the BJP won 15 seats, which is equivalent to 105 assembly constituencies, with a vote share of 46.5 percent while the Congress won 11 seats with a vote share of 43.4 percent.
While the Congress has evidently fared better in the parliamentary polls than in the assembly elections, it is worth noting that the BJP's tally of seats in the assembly fell from 127 in 2002 to 92 in 2004, if the results in the assembly segments of the Lok Sabha elections are taken into account, then the total went up to 117 in 2007, and finally down to 105 assembly constituencies in the 2009 parliamentary contest.
It has to be remembered that the decline has taken place despite the widespread belief that the Congress does not exist in Gujarat, as Prof. J.S. Bandukwala, who was nearly killed in the 2002 riots, once said.
In any event, the Congress's political weakness in the absence of a leader to match Modi's stature is an accepted fact although its vote share hovers around a respectable 40 percent.
Irrespective of whether this base of support is enough or not, several other factors can be taken into consideration.
One is the fact that the BJP's tally in recent years was the highest in 2002, when the riots polarised the communities as never before and led to a surge of support from the communal-minded Hindus for Modi.
