New Delhi: The landslide win by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi assembly elections was predicted by no one. No exit poll even got close to the results the AAP finally pulled. All the exit polls predicted a win for AAP except one very little known survey company called Data Mineria that got the winner wrong.
The exit polls on the eve of the elections predicted that AAP would get between 31 and 53 seats. BJP was predicted to win 17 to 35 seats and the Congress between 0-5.
Since 2009, only three out of 72 exit polls got the leading party wrong but almost all of them have got the prediction of seats wrong. But none of them failed as miserably as Delhi assembly elections. The highest number of seats any exit poll given AAP was 53, still 14 short of the real tally.
There are many reasons why the survey firms fail to predict the election results accurately. The most probable cause is because many voters mislead surveyors about their voting choices, especially the voters from socially or economically backward class.
Sometimes the survey company itself inserts personal biases into the results. Whatever the motive might be, it affects the credibility of the firm.
The budget and time constraints also cause the exit polls to be faulty or less accurate.
There are certain rules and methodology that has to be followed in conducting poll surveys. Like, all class are areas have to be covered, all age groups have covers and etc. the fault in methodology of the pollsters leads to wrong exit polls. The calculation of votes into seats can also cause faulty results.
The poll surveys in the US and other western countries are mostly accurate than in India. The budget and the large number of voters in a constituency also affect the results of exit polls in India.
