Srinagar: It was writ large the day polling ended in J & K that no party would get clear majority as BJP's vigorous campaign not only changed the scenario for national Conference and Congress but also polarized the votes to some extent.
With Mufti Mohammad Sayeed being touted as next CM, People's Democratic party has more than a reason to be in a dilemma when it comes to choosing its ally for the formation of the government.
Tuesday's early poll results clearly show the state most likely will have a hung assembly and that PDP will emerge as a single largest party with around 30 seats, still short of the magic figure of 44 in 87 seats assembley.
Now the big question for PDP is who to ally with if it decides to form the government ?
If PDP looks up to BJP who may have about 25 seats in its kitty, the alliance will have figure at 55 which is way beyond the required number. And if it reaches out to Congress which looks like getting around 16 seats, the number will get around 46.
Now for a moment lets forget the numbers and ideologies and look at the different scenarios. Practical wisdom says that the PDP should go with the BJP because as a regional party it would like to form a government with the party ruling at the Centre as has been the case in last 12 years, a regional party (either PDP or National Conference) allying with a party (Congress) ruling at the Centre.
Although Mufti Sayeed has said in the past that Congress was a national ally, analysts feel PDP would not want a ‘hostile' central government.
Pre result statements from both the parties do indicate they are ready to tie the knot. But can PDP afford to palm away the ideological differences with the right wing BJP over important and contentious issues like larger autonomy or self-rule and Article 370? Certainly not if it wants to emerge a strong rival to National Conference in a long term.
One just hopes Mufti Sayeed still remembers what BJP mentor RSS's mouth piece had written about him way back in 1989. V.P Singh led National Front was having outside support of BJP. Mufti became a bone of contention between them after the right wing outfit counted him as one of the sins of the then government for being made home minister despite being a Muslim.
So Congress with whom PDP chief patron Mufti Sayeed was associated till 1987, becomes its next choice as a large section in the party does not want to compromise on its ideology.
Another factor which might tilt the balance towards the Congress is the fact that the people in Kashmir to a large extent voted against the BJP.
Jammu and Kashmir poll results among other things have shown that there was no regional divide in Jammu and Kashmir regions as it was reflected today. While the Jammu region has chosen BJP, Kashmir has voted for PDP and NC.
As the PDP and Congress numbers add up, it will be very difficult for PDP to sell an alliance with BJP to the people who voted for it in large numbers.
Congress, on the other hand, has said it is ready to consider being part of the government, if PDP chooses to ally with it.
