New Delhi: By-poll results for three Lok Sabha and 33 assembly seats once again underline the fact that the mandate that BJP got in 2014 Lok Sabha elections was mainly for Narendra Modi and not for the party as such.
The reverses that the party has suffered in by-polls of UP and Bihar, the two states that played a crucial role in handing over a majority to Modi in parliament, indicates that the people of two states had actually voted for Narendra Modi, the PM candidate, and that they still don't see a local credible face of the BJP at the state level. Not only this, it also reminds that the BJP has either no issue at the state level or the common man is not interested in issues they are raising.
The by-poll results of UP are shocking for the BJP. Just four months back, the BJP along with its ally Apna Dal had won 73 seats but it has been totally decimated in the by-polls. The BJP led by its star campaigner Yogi Adityanath tried to capitalize on ‘Love Jihad' but it seems the people have rejected the main poll plank of the party.
‘Love Jihad' seems to have failed to consolidate Hindus but the minorities seem to have rallied behind the SP. They had an easy choice this time as the BSP was not in the fray in these by-polls. In one sense, it seems to have boomeranged on the BJP as it helped SP in consolidating Muslim votes.
What seems to have gone against the BJP is the decision of the BSP not to contest assembly by-polls. It seems that the core supporters of BSP have switched over to SP in absence of BSP candidates although it's too early to say anything until the results and voting patterns are minutely scrutinized.
The by-poll results of UP and Bihar should work as alarm-bells for the BJP as it completely indicates that ‘Modi magic' will no longer work for state level elections.
The Congress has snatched three seats from BJP in Gujarat and it's nothing short of a setback for the ruling party. It also goes on to show that Anandiben Patel has a long way to go in the state and she has an arduous task to maintain the winning record that Modi had set for the party in the state. Victory in these three seats is bound to boost the morale of the Congress party.
Rajasthan by-poll results are equally surprising. The Congress has snatched three seats from BJP even in this state. It's again a reminder of the fact that Modi magic is waning in most of the states where the BJP had done extremely well in assembly elections.
The gist of the story is that the BJP should stop relying too much on ‘Modi magic' in state elections where local issues dominate the election campaign. One should also not forget the fact that the promises that Modi made during election campaign are not that easy to fulfill. It will take years but the people lack the patience to wait for that long. And it will have its repercussions on election results.
The BJP had high hopes from upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. All pre-poll surveys are predicting an easy win for the ‘BJP-Shiv Sena' alliance in Maharashtra but one should not forget that the ruling Congress-NCP combine is facing a huge anti-incumbency and that will play an important role in elections. Same is the case in Haryana where the B S Hooda govt is facing anti-incumbency of over 10 years. The BJP may do well in these two states but it will be mainly because the ruling parties are facing huge anti-incumbency wave that may help the BJP in doing well in upcoming assembly elections.
The Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said that he did not get the luxury of ‘honeymoon period' that evey new government enjoys for first few months. He had actually targeted his political opponents by this statement but what will he say now? The people have spoken in these bypolls and his honeymoon period, if any, is definitely over.
