Desperate to form government at the centre, BJP, from 1995 onwards, agreed to play the role of a junior partner and Nitish Kumar emerged as the alternative to Lalu-Rabri regime in Bihar. All anti-Lalu forces rallied behind Nitish Kumar and this is how RJD was forced to bite the dust in 2005 assembly elections.
Even today, if there is one leader who has the biggest following in Bihar then it is Lalu Prasad who has the unflinching support of 11 percent Yadavs and 16 percent Muslims.
Lalu Prasad has 27 percent of electorates behind him and Ramvilas Paswan's support has further added to his support base.
Nitish Kumar can defeat Lalu Prasad led alliance as long as he remains the consensus candidate of anti-Lalu forces.
The moment the consensus cracks, there is every possibility of Lalu making a comeback in Bihar. Being a seasoned politician, Nitish Kumar knows it very well and that's why he is not in a position to take final decision on alliance with BJP.
Coming to Nitish Kumar's opposition to Modi as PM candidate, it has more than one reason.
The most important reason that everyone is aware of, is that he wants to make inroads into the Muslim electorate that is still largely standing behind Lalu Prasad.
He has tried to generate goodwill for himself within the Muslim community and does not want Modi's candidature to spoil his efforts.
Secondly, he has his own ambitions for 7, Racecourse road and he sniffs a chance for himself in case there is a hung parliament in 2014.
Being an old Socialist, he believes he will find acceptance among his old friends like Prakash Karat, A B Bardhan and D Raja who are always willing to experiment with third, fourth or fifth front.
He also hopes to get the support of regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee and Naveen patnaik and that's why he has started talking for special state status not only to Bihar but also to states like Odisha.
But the third and most interesting reason is his closeness to L K Advani. Many political observers are opinion that Nitish Kumar is being prodded by Advani who still harbours PM ambitions.
Political analysts have pointed out time and again that Nitish Kumar is in fact batting on behalf of Advani who is not comfortable with the growing chorus within the BJP to declare Modi as its PM candidate.
