Can 'Lalu-Nitish' combination stop 'Modi magic' from working in Bihar?

New Delhi: As the adage goes, politics is a game of possibilities. Two leaders spitting venom against each other in the evening can very well be seen praising each other next morning because one night is a very long time in politics.The coming together of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in Bihar is undoubtedly a desperate attempt aimed at ensuring mutual survival for the hitherto two distinct poles of Bihar politics. The ‘Modi magic' that was in full swing across Bihar in 2014 Lok Sabha elections seems to have completely shaken these two icons of Bihar politics.After the decline of Congress in the state that happened in the early 1990s, politics in Bihar largely revolved around the troika – Lalu, Nitish and Ramavilas Paswan. Out of these three, Lalu and Nitish managed to become CMs of the state and were product of JP movement while Ramvilas Paswan, whose ambition still remains unfulfilled, was the senior most as he was elected to Bihar assembly way back in 1969. Once upon a time, all the three were known for their staunch advocacy of Mandal brand of politics. In addition to that, all three had started off their respective careers with anti-Congress ideology. It's a different matter that all of them had to compromise with their twin ideologies for the sake of political power. When Lalu Prasad became the Chief Minister of Bihar, an ambitious Nitish Kumar broke ranks with him within a few years and joined hands with BJP. At that time, BJP was a pariah of Indian politics in the aftermath of the demolition of Babri structure but the eagerness to somehow get to the top post prompted Nitish Kumar to completely overlook the communal charges that were being leveled against the BJP. The ‘Nitish-BJP' alliance was termed as ‘opportunistic' and ‘unholy' by his political opponents including Lalu Prasad but Nitish refused to pay any attention to such accusations at that time. Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi ruled the state for 15 long years while Nitish Kumar was waiting in the wings. It was in 2005 that Nitish Kumar finally succeeded in dethroning RJD from power. With the support of BJP, Nitish took over the reins of the state. Lalu -Rabri had managed to rule Bihar for 15 years with a solid Yadav-Muslim votebank. After becoming Chief Minister, Nitish tried to replicate this model with his own EBC- Muslim Vote bank. Nitish Kumar committed the mistake of overlooking the fact that he had actually emerged as an alternative for all anti-Lalu forces including the forward and non-Yadav backward castes who were largely BJP supporters. As he always planned to make inroads into the crucial Muslim votebank that accounted for 16 percent of the entire population, Nitish tried to keep Narendra Modi at an arm's length in Bihar throughout his alliance with the saffron outfit. He did not allow Modi to campaign in Bihar as long as he was part of NDA alliance. The reason behind his stiff opposition to Narendra Modi's campaign in Bihar was not just his lust for Muslim votes. He also considered Modi a threat to his support base of non-Yadav backwards. Since Narendra Modi also belongs to the OBC community, Nitish always considered him a threat. His victory in 2010 assembly elections made him a little more ambitious and he started considering himself a serious contender for PM post if NDA were to win a majority in Lok Sabha elections. His calculation was that the BJP will never get a majority on its own and alliance partners will never accept Narenda Modi as the PM candidate given his negative image among the Muslim community. In fact, Nitish had conveyed his serious reservations over Modi's PM candidature to both Advani and Gadkari. Some political observers also point out that Advani instigated and encouraged Nitish to openly oppose Modi's candidature so that BJP is compelled to declare Advani as its PM candidate. All these observations can't be corroborated with solid evidence but the way Advani reacted to Modi's declaration as BJP's PM candidate definitely gave credence to these allegations.Modi's formal declaration as BJP's PM candidate left Nitish shell-shocked. As was widely anticipated, he walked out of the NDA alliance in protest. It turned out to be the biggest blunder of his political career because there was a tangible Modi wave blowing across his state. Nitish had to pay heavily for his misadventure and his party was decimated in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. 2014 Lok Sabha elections proved to be equally disastrous for Nitish Kumar's bête noire Lalu Prasad. While JD (U) could manage to win just two seats, RJD emerged victorious in 4 seats. For RJD, Rabri Devi's loss to Rajiv Pratap Rudy from Saran and Misa's loss to Ramkripal Yadav from Pataliputra added insult to the injury. The case of Ram Vilas Paswan is more interesting. Unable to emerge as a serious contender for CM post in Bihar given his narrow support base, Paswan flirted with everybody,from RJD to Congress and BJP. He would play up secular card when he saw it advantageous to join hands with Congress and would start giving lectures on development the moment he made up his mind to join the BJP bandwagon.A new challenge for Paswan was to set up the political career of his son Chirag Paswan who, like his father, had no qualms in joining hands either with RJD, Congress or BJP. On the eve of 2014 Lok Sabha elections sensing a definite Modi wave working in the state, Paswan joined hands with BJP and won six Lok Sabha seats. He will definitely play an important role in assembly elections with his committed and aggressive Paswan vote bank. Will Lalu and Nitish be able to stop the BJP led coalition in Bihar? Even the Congress has joined the Lalu-Nitish brigade and the first test will be in upcoming by-elections to 10 assembly seats. In these elections, RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine will be pitted against the BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance.In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP led coalition won 31 seats in Bihar – BJP 22, LJP 6 and Upendra Kushwaha led RLSP 3. The JD (U) and Congress won 2 seats each while RJD won 4 seats.But a look at the vote percentage in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar makes the story even more interesting. The BJP won 29.4% vote, LJP 6.4% and RLSP 3%. Hence the NDA alliance, as a whole, got a total of 38.8 percent of the total vote.On the other hand, the RJD won 20.1% vote, JD(U) 15.8% and Congress 8.4%. The combined vote percentage of these three parties clearly exceeds the vote percentage of NDA alliance but what has to be kept in mind is that RJD, JD(U) and Congress fought these elections separately. Will the RJD-JD (U)-Congress combine have an advantage over the NDA given the fact that they polled more votes in 2014 general elections? Those who understand the intricacies of electoral politics know that it is governed by chemistry and not simple arithmetic. Nitish Kumar will have to do a lot of explaining as to why he has joined hands with the same Lalu Prasad who he had accused of spreading ‘jungle raj' in Bihar? His claims of having taken a U-turn to save secularism sound so hollow to the people of Bihar. Anti-Lalu forces have still not forgiven him for breaking alliance with BJP and now he is being seen as a leader who may help Lalu bring back what is remembered as the ‘Jungle raj' of previous RJD rule. The people of Bihar had voted for Nitish Kumar on anti-Lalu platform. His joining of hands with Lalu may consolidate Muslim vote bank in favour of this alliance but they may find it difficult to transfer their traditional vote banks to each other because the hostilities of last 24 years have created a huge trust deficit between the two sides. As far as the BJP is concerned, the biggest problem the party faces in Bihar is lack of any credible face which could inspire confidence in people. Sushil Kumar Modi is an old hand but lacks the charisma to attract the electorate. Two of its state leaders, Nand Kishore Yadav and Prem Kumar, have staked their claim for the Chief Minister's post and it gives an idea of the rampant factionalism in the party. But the BJP's trump card is Narendra Modi who has got massive fan following in Bihar and it was Modi magic which gave the alliance an unassailable lead over its rivals. Will the new RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine be able to stop the ‘Modi magic' from working in Bihar?Electoral politics in India is so complex that no prediction can be made with precision. In case of Bihar, all that can be said, as of now, is that the chemistry of politics does not present a very rosy picture for the RJD-JD (U)-Congress combine given the inconsistency in their political stands in the past. But in a state where everything gets reduced to caste equations, the new platform will definitely pose a greater challenge to the NDA alliance and it won't be shocking if they succeed in putting a break to the ‘Modi magic' in the state although it looks like a remote possibility, as on today.

Can 'Lalu-Nitish' combination stop 'Modi magic' from working in Bihar?

New Delhi: As the adage goes, politics is a game of possibilities. Two leaders spitting venom against each other in the evening can very well be seen praising each other next morning because one night

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