(Tarun Gogoi)
The BJP, meanwhile, is also trying to come out of the Modi wave hangout. Successive defeats in Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections have made the party realise that it can no longer rely completely on the personal charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in state Assembly elections.
The party leadership has finally concluded that the lack of a credible face as the Chief Ministerial candidate played a big role in its electoral debacle in both Delhi and Bihar. The party seems to have learnt its lessons and that's why it has already declared Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports, as its CM candidate.
Interestingly, Sonowal is also the state president of Assam BJP. This is a bit unusual for a union minister to simultaneously hold the responsibilities of state president especially in a party like BJP which claims to strictly follow the principle of ‘one man, one post'. Clearly, it indicates the extent to which the party is relying on Sonowal.
The BJP chose Sonowal over Hemant Biswa Sharma who has crossed over to the saffron party a few months back after breaking ranks with Tarun Gogoi and Congress party.
Biswa, however, has been given important responsibility by the BJP as he has been made the head of party's campaign committee. It remains to be seen whether Biswa, till recently a veteran Congress leader, succeeds in making inroads into the tradition vote bank of the Congress party.
Tarun Gogoi, the Assam Chief Minister, has been claiming for quite some time now that the upcoming Assembly elections would be a direct fight between him and PM Modi.
In fact, he stressed on this point while addressing a press conference in New Delhi a few weeks ago. Gogoi actually taunted BJP for not having a credible face at the local level in Assam. He did not fail to remind BJP that even Sonowal is originally a leader who the BJP has imported from AGP.
“It will be a direct fight between me and PM Modi. I'm saying this because the BJP has no local face of its own in Assam. Even Sarbananda Sonowal has come from AGP, so who will challenge me?” Tarun Gogoi had said in New Delhi. Gogoi had also challenged PM Modi to explain who has done the most for the development of Assam. He also went on to quote government figures to underline that Assam had made significant progress on almost all socio-economic parameters under Congress rule.
Obviously, Gogoi wants to emulate the formula that Nitish Kumar had so successfully used in Bihar. Hitting at BJP for not projecting any CM candidate, Nitish had converted the entire election into what he called ‘Bihari versus Baharai(read Modi)' fight. It seems Gogoi believes that he can successfully replicate Nitish Formula in Assam.
All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal is another important player in Assam Assembly elections. With significant presence among the Muslim electorate, AIUDF was initially wooed by the Congress party and JD (U) was trying to bring the two parties together. However, the move could not succeed.
After the Congress failed to strike an alliance with AIUDF, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said that instead of a grand-alliance (on the patterns of Bihar), his party will go for grand-understanding between like-minded parties including AIUDF.
When asked to explain what he exactly meant by grand-understanding, Gogoi had said,” it means to ensure that secular and anti-BJP votes are not divided.”
Perhaps as part of their understanding, AIUDF has announced to contest only 60 seats so that Muslim votes are not divided in rest of 66 seats. The Congress has made it clear that the party will contest all 126 seats.
As far as the BJP alliance is concerned, the reports suggest that BJP will contest around 80 seats and AGP around 27 seats. The two parties may go for friendly contest in around 3 seats. Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF), the third partner of this alliance may contest around 16 seats.
Obviously, the battle lines are already drawn between BJP-AGP-BPF alliance and the Congress party which has perhaps struck a grand-understanding with AIUDF as Tarun Gogoi had hinted during his press-conference in New Delhi a few weeks back.
The BJP-led alliance hopes to ride on the anti-incumbency against Congress arising out of its 15 year long rule in the state. The question is - will a veteran like Tarun Gogoi concede the ground so easily? Only time will tell.
