New Delhi: That the road to 7, Race Course Road passes though Uttar Pradesh is something that every Indian is fully aware of. If Narendra Modi proved all his opponents wrong by registering a landslide victory in the 2014 general elections then the credit for that actually went to UP which handed his alliance a massive 73 seats from the state.
The key to Narendra Modi’s return in 2019 lies once again in Uttar Pradesh.
If the party fails to repeat the same performance in UP, then PM Modi’s dreams of making a comeback will be as good as over. The BJP is well aware of this reality and that’s why it is leaving no stone unturned in its efforts to snatch power from Samajwadi Party in upcoming Assembly elections in the state.
Political circles in Uttar Pradesh are rife with an interesting speculation, according to which the Assembly elections in the state may be advanced by at least six months. It means that the elections may be held in November-December 2016 instead of Mid-2017.
Technically speaking, these are mere speculations, but a closer analysis of the political moves undertaken by both the ruling Samajwadi Party and BJP appear to give credence to the speculations.
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If media reports are to be believed, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav looks to be in a hurry because he has expedited all the mega projects in the state including Agra-Lucknow expressway or the Metro projects across the state.
Political commentators point out that the Akhilesh Yadav government wants to inaugurate all these projects during its own tenure and not leave the electoral harvest to be reaped by the next government if the party fails to make a comeback.
Clearly, the Akhilesh government is not leaving anything to chance and the CM himself is reportedly keen to expedite the work.
There is a feeling in Samajwadi Party that the Election Commission (EC) may advance the dates under the pressure of BJP.
Political observers point out that there could be some merit in the speculation because the BJP ideally would not want UP Assembly elections to be held after elections to Punjab Assembly which completes its tenure of 5 years at the end of January 2017.
Since the Prakash Singh Badal-led Akali-BJP alliance is not expected to do well in Punjab assembly elections, the BJP may not want the elections in UP to be impacted by the loss in Punjab.
And the tone of speakers including PM Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh at the Saharanpur rally of BJP held on Thursday has only strengthened the ongoing speculation over advancement of Assembly elections.
The aggression with which PM Modi spoke and the issues he touched clearly hinted that the BJP is in full election mode and may not mind all three elections – UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab to be held simultaneously at the end of 2016.
The historic victory of BJP in Assam has further boosted the morale of party workers throughout the length and breadth of the country. And the central and state leadership of BJP would not like to let the euphoria wane before the crucial UP Assembly elections.
The opponents of PM Modi have always accused him of being in election mode all the time but the Prime Minister indeed appeared to be sounding the election bugle during his Saharanpur rally.
Interestingly, PM Modi raised the emotive issue of payment of dues to cane farmers and reminded the people of the state that it was his government which released Rs 6,000 crore to the state for this purpose.
“Others only talked about paying the dues to cane farmers but we have actually released the money,” PM Modi quipped.
The Prime Minister did not forget to mention that the ruling Samajwadi Party did not discharge its responsibility.
“Actually, it’s the responsibility of the state government to pay dues to cane farmers but despite that we ensured that the money is released for cane farmers,” he added.
It should be recalled that the issue of cane farmers is very emotive in Western Uttar Pradesh and the promises made to them always affect the voting preferences of the electorate in that region.
It’s so important that Rahul Gandhi was seen doing padyatra sometime back with the cane farmers to express his solidarity with them.
Mayawati, when she was the Chief Minister, had actually threatened to sell sugar mills to pay the dues of cane farmers although she could not do anything concrete in this regard.
PM Modi reportedly was working on the issue of cane farmers from August last year and his speech at Saharanpur clearly hinted that he wants to encash it electorally as soon as possible.
Whether the Election Commission will actually advance the elections by six months or not is only a matter of speculation but, as we say, there is no smoke without fire and the tone of BJP’s top leadership at Saharanpur has only boosted the possibility of early elections to UP Assembly.
