New Delhi: “I am a UP waala, I am an MP from UP and it is natural that I wish to seek your blessings and, going by the huge crowds, be amongst you.” This is how Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his speech at a rally in Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, kicking off the celebrations to mark two years of the formation of the National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre.
An understanding that Modi’s choice of words, or for that matter, the choice of the venue (Saharanpur) has no hidden message would be immature. Uttar Pradesh is scheduled to go to polls next year. Its newfound success in the recently concluded Assembly elections – particularly in Assam – has renewed the enthusiasm of the party and clinching UP will be on top of its agenda.
It should come as no surprise then that the Saharanpur rally was more of a beginning to the party’s campaign for the upcoming elections than to mark two years at the Centre. That Modi is an astute politician is well-known; his choice of the venue thus, cannot be without reason.
Understanding the relevance of his strategy isin line with the religious and caste demography of Saharanpur and adjoining areas, the region’s industries and the position of its political parties and its politicial history.
Situated close to the borders of Haryana and Uttarakhand (which incidentally also goes to polls next year), it was a stronghold of Congress veteran and former Prime Miniser Chaudhary Charan Singh- until his death in 1987. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Raghav Lakhanpal Sharma, the sitting MP from the city. Sharma beat his Congress rival by a margin of 65,000 votes.
The reaosn behind the political clout of Charan Singh, the Jat strongman from UP, can be attributed to his success in successfully keeping both the Muslims and the Jats united under his fold.
Following his demise, contesting claims by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ajit Singh dented the Jat-Muslim alliance.
The communal riots in Muzaffarnagar and its adjoining areas in the state also dealt a body blow to the combine in the state.
According to the 2011 census, Saharanpur has a 51 per cent population of Hindus while the Muslims constitute 46 per cent.
Political pundits have argued that polarisation on religious lines has workled in favour of both the ruling Samajwadi Party and the BJP.
Out of 77 assembly seats in this region, Muslim candidates won 26 seats in the 2012 assembly elections.
While the numbers were always on the side of the Muslims, it is their economic growth that kept their confidence intact.
So, while identity politics may have played its fair share in the political landscape of the state, economic factors are responsible equally, if not more, for the disillusionment of Jats, the other dominant community in the region. According to the 2006 report of the Sachar committee that mapped the socio-economic conditions of Muslims, "While the share of Muslim workers engaged in agriculture is much lower than for other groups, their participation in manufacturing and trade (especially for males) is much higher than for other SRCs (socio religious categories). Besides, their participation in construction work is also high."
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As per the report, besides construction, the participation of Muslim workers is quite high in retail and wholesale trade, land transport, automobile repair, manufacture of tobacco products, textiles and apparel and fabricated metal products.
Jats, on the other hand, have suffered primarily because of the plight of the once-flourishing sugar mills in the region. Western UP, once known as a sugar bowl of the state, has been languishing – partly due to policy and partly due to low yield.
It is this sizable chunk of the population in this region that the BJP will look to tap. Political pundits say the Jat factor would essentially come into play in 19 districts which have a sizeable population of the community. These districts like Saharanpur, Mathura, Baghpat have a sizable Jat population, with the community comprising upto 40 per cent of the population in some cities.
The Jat vote bank, is thus crucial for poll victory for the BJP in UP. The region has 136 assembly seats spread over 25 districts.
If one looks at the results of past few polls, either Bahujan Samaj Party or the Samajwadi Party have grabbed maximum seats there.
Occupying the third slot in assembly elections, however, it was Bharatiya Janata Party that grabbed all the seats 2014 Lok Sabha elections. No doubt then, that the BJP will look to continue its winning run.
It is precisely for this reason that Modi’s speech had a strong emphasis on the plight of the population dependent on the sugarcane industry, which primarily constitutes Jats.
When PM Modi sends out a warning to the sugar mills to mend their ways, he is essentially addressing the issues mainly affecting the Jat community.
“All these years what you have done to the farmers, you (sugar mills/state government) wont be allowed to do anymore. Government has made rules that sugarcane farmers wont have any dues left,” PM said, adding that Rs 14,000 crore was the amount due when he assumed charge as PM and that Rs 700-800 crore was the amount left to be paid out.
Clearly, it is not without reason that he says this. In the Assembly elections of UP in 2012 (403 seats), the BJP (47 seats) came in at third following the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party at 80 seats and the Samajwadi Party at 224 seats.
Modi and the BJP will certainly look to change this tally and the vote of the prominent Jat community will play a big role in the party realising its dreams.
Whether the community places its complete faith in the saffron party will be a test of time. More importantly, it is the uncertaintly that goes as a characteristic of UP’s polity that the BJP will have to counter.
Going by the beginning it has made, the elections are going to nothing short of intersting to say the least.
