New Delhi: The results of polls in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have shown that the decline of Congress since the Lok Sabha elections has not ebbed. Moreover, the current loss of face in Kerala and Assam, where it enjoyed the confidence of the electorate for decades, has raised some pertinent questions on its highest leadership.
Nevertheless, for the Bharatiya Janata Party, there is enough reason for cheer. Besides scripting history by forming its first ever government in the north-eastern state of Assam, its stated ambition of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ appears closer to reality than ever.
Soon after the results were declared, party chief Amit Shah wasted no opportunity to rub it in. The BJP is closer to its aim of creating a ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’, he asserted. If that does not get alarm bells ringing at the Congress headquarters, a look at some facts that show the Congress ceding ground definitely will.
First, when the Congress got a drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, it was ruling in 13 states. Now, the tally has come down to six. Significantly, the population of Indians that these states constitutes only 6 per cent of India. These states are - Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya and Mizoram.
Soon after the results were declared, Congress President Sonia Gandhi said the party would introspect over the causes of the debacle and work with "greater vigour" for the services of the people.
"We will introspect into the reasons for our loss and will rededicate ourselves to the service of the people with greater vigour", Gandhi said in the statement.
Second, ever since the loss of the party in the 2014 polls, the Congress has lost six assembly elections. Though the Congress was on the winning side in Bihar elections, its role was limited to that of the third junior partner of the alliance. As a result, the saffron party or allied state governments now hold 69 per cent of India's territory while Congress, with allied governments, has been forced to retreat to 14 per cent.
Third, the drubbing received by the Congress has led to the party losing ground, quite literally. The six states that Congress has under its rule constitute a little over 11 per cent of the total area of India. Congress’ loss, on the other hand, has been BJP’s gain – the area under its rule constitutes over 45 per cent of India.
Fourth, despite the reason for BJP’s rejoice – on the face of it – should only be limited to Assam, it has made critical inroads into the states where it has not managed to win a significant number of seats. The recent elections on five states show an upward trend in terms of the vote share of the BJP and its allies.
In Kerala, where it managed only one seat – its first ever—the BJP has garnered a 15 per cent vote share, up from a little over 6 per cent the last time. On its own, the BJP’s vote share has traditionally hovered around the 5 per cent mark. Even in West Bengal, the BJP alliance’s vote share has shot up up to 11 per cent as compared to 4 per cent in the last elections. These are and should sound warning bells for the high command.
If the BJP manges to keep its allies intact, and can manage to build an organisational structure in these states, it can well emerge as a formidable force that Congress will have trouble to reckon with.
After last year’s back-to-back electoral defeats in Delhi and Bihar, the BJP focused on getting both the local leadership and its alliances right in Assam and Kerala. This historic win in Assam is expected to bolster Modi-Shah’s jodi after criticism following last year’s poor performance.
The BJP has enough numbers in Assam and it is all set to form its first ever government in the state and the Northeast region of the country. The BJP also improved its tally in West Bengal and won its first-ever seat in Kerala.
“The BJP’s performance in assembly polls is in a way people’s stamp on performance of Modi government in the last two years,” Shah said.
The results also bolstered the BJP’s claim of being a national party, having expanded its base outside the traditional stronghold of north India. “Assam’s victory is important in many ways, given that it is a border state. The government is committed to the development of the state,” Shah said.
BJP’s chief ministerial candidate in Assam, Sarbananda Sonowal, will take oath on May 24. The party secured absolute majority along with its allies in the assembly elections. While the BJP won 60 seats on its own in the 126-member House, its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has won 14 seats and Bodoland People's Front (BPF) 12 seats.
Obviously, questions are being raised on the leadership. Party veteran Digvijay Singh has called for deep surgey, contradicting the party’s stated post-defeat line of ‘introspection’. The drubbing of the party also appears to have whitewashed the BJP’s failure in Bihar and bolstered the morale of the party rank and file. The writing on the wall is clear – if only the Congress leadership has the courage to read it!!
