New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) created history in the north-eastern state of Assam when the saffron outfit, for the first time since independence, got the mandate to rule the state with its alliance partners AGP (Assom Gana Parishad) and BDF ( Bodoland Peoples Front).
In a house of 126 members, BJP alliance has a comfortable majority of 86. The BJP emerged victorious in 60 seats on its own while its allies AGP and BDF won 14 and 12 seats respectively.
The BJP fought these elections under the joint leadership of Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma, the man who switched over to BJP from Congress at the eleventh hour. Learning from its Bihar debacle, the BJP did not play the Modi card beyond a point and allowed the local leadership of Sonowal and Sarma to lead the election campaign. And the strategy clicked with BJP alliance scoring an easy win.
As promised by the BJP, Sarbananda Sonowal took over as the new Chief Minister of Assam on Tuesday and Himanta Biswa Sarma has also joined his ministry that consist of 10 members as of now.
What are the main challenges for Sarbananda Sonowal as the 17th Chief Minister of Assam?
The BJP made a number of promises during the election campaign and as it happens, the electorate expects speedy implementation of all those tall promises.
Will it be easy for the new Chief Minister to fulfil his election promises? Let’s have a look at Sonowal’s poll promises and existing ground realities.
Sealing Indo-Bangladesh border
The biggest promise that the BJP alliance made to the people was to seal the Indo-Bangladesh border. Now, it’s not impossible but definitely it’s easier said than done given that the border is around 263 Kilo meters long. On top of that, the border is largely riverine which means that the fencing is not possible throughout the length and breadth of the border.
Even at the places where fencing is in place, it will be a tough task to tackle the mafia which is involved in the business of fake currency printing and cattle smuggling. For them, crossing the fence is not a big deal. It’s an open secret that Indo-Bangladesh border has become the largest centre of cattle smuggling in the world and the connivance of the officials is the main reason why this murky business is flourishing.
Sonowal would need a strong resolve and will-power to make border sealing a reality. It will take its own sweet time as it will be a process and not an event. Those who voted Sonowal to power would seek speedy sealing of the borders and any kind of delay will usher in a sense of despondency in them and the new Chief Minister should be ready to strike a balance between expectation and ground realities.
The other big promise made by BJP-alliance was to detect and deport illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. Now, this is a very contentious issue because it has got a communal angle as well. It’s a fact that a majority of illegal Bangladeshis are Muslims but any attempt to detect and deport them will evoke sharp response among Muslims of the state who constitute around 34% of the electorate.
Detecting illegal immigrants, in itself, is a very challenging task. What is interesting is that it was Sarbanand Sonowal who had filed a petition in the Supreme Court for striking down the controversial IMDT Act [Illegal Migrants (Determination of Tribunals) Act] of 1983. Sonowal was an AGP leader at that time. The Supreme Court actually agreed with Sonowal that IMDT Act was a big impediment in detecting illegal Bangladeshis and the apex court finally struck down that act. At that time, Sonowal was praised by the All Assam Student Union (AASU) as the ‘Jatiya Nayak’.
As the new Chief Minister, Sonowal will have to come up with effective ways and means of detecting illegal Bangladeshis. There have been demands in the state for updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC) which contains electoral rolls between 1951 and 1971. The opponents of Congress have accused the party of deliberately delaying the updation of NRC because the grand old party had a large support among the illegal immigrants. It is believed that the updation of NRC gained momentum only after the Modi government took the reins of power at the centre.
Detection and Deportation of Illegal Bangladeshi Immigrants
But even the detection is not the end of the problem. How would the government deport the detected illegal Bangladeshis to their parent country? Will Bangladesh accept them easily? Can Modi government take the risk of pushing the case beyond a point with Hasina government in Bangladesh which is considered friendly towards India? Obviously, there are too many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ involved in the entire process.
Apart from these too crucial challenges, Sonowal faces an uphill task on issues like unemployment, problems of farmers and tea garden workers, setting up industries etc as mentioned in the vision document of the BJP.
On political front, Sonowal will have to keep allies like AGP and BDF in good humour because it's a coalition government and his party lacks a clear majority on its. A 10-member ministry has been sworn in that consists of 6 members frpm BJP, 2 each from AGP and BDF. The allies are already clamoring for more berths and Sonowal will have to lean the tricks of running a coalition government.
Handling Himanta Biswa Sarma
But the biggest challenge for Sonowal will be on political front as he will have to maintain a smooth working relation with Himanta Biswa Sarma who played a key role in ensuring the victory of the BJP-led alliance in the state. The question is this – for how long will Himanta play second fiddle to Sonowal given the fact that he is very ambitious and has aspirations to occupy the CM’s chair? If he was not ready to play second fiddle to Gaurav Gogoi, the son of Tarun Gogoi, will he accept Sonowal’s leadership at least for next 5 years?
One can’t ignore the fact that before joining the BJP, Sarma was in the firing line of the Saffron party. The BJP had alleged at that time that Sarma was tainted and that he was involved in Guwahati water supply scam involving the Congress government and Louise Beger International Inc, which worked as a consultant. Sarma was even questioned by the CBI in the multi-crore Saradha chit-fund scam and the BJP had made a big issue out of that.
The bottom-line is that Sonowal will have to try his best to ensure that the acrimonies of the past do not eclipse the newly found bonhomie especially when the neo-convert is as ambitious as Himanta Biswa Sarma is.
The people of Assam have voted Sarbanada Sonowal to power with great expectations and he should not leave any stone unturned in making his poll promises a reality.
However, everybody including both his supporters as well as opponents must understand that the new Assam CM is walking on a bumpy road and he needs his own time to settle down while treading that treacherous road.
