As the ongoing Israel-Hamas war marked a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, the year 2023 has seen its share of significant events across the world that would have major ramifications for the upcoming year. The year also witnessed a series of deadly natural disasters in Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan, resulting in thousands of casualties and grabbing the international spotlight.
This year also saw a major diplomatic victory for India in the highly-anticipated G20 Summit in September, when it also saw a sharp decline with the Khalistan controversy with Canada. As we gear up for year 2024, here is a look at the top ten significant geopolitical events that will impact the upcoming year.
The G20 Summit in New Delhi
India hosted the G20 Summit in New Delhi under its presidency for the first time, inviting eminent world leaders like Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak, Emmanuel Macron, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ursula von der Leyen, Justin Trudeau, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Olaf Scholz, Anthony Albanese and more. On the first day, India officially inducted the African Union (AU) into the G20 forum.
India scored a major diplomatic victory by adopting the New Delhi G20 Leaders' Declaration, overcoming key differences between world leaders on the Russia-Ukraine war. India also announced a slew of initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor and the Global Biofuels Alliance.
The Israel-Hamas war
A major war broke out between bitter foes Israel and Hamas when the Gaza-based militant group attacked the Jewish country on October 7, killing 1,200 Israelis in their homes, a music festival and other public places in an unprecedented manner by overcoming the country's robust intelligence and security measures. Thousands of Israelis were wounded and 240 people were taken hostage by Hamas.
In retaliation, Israel began relentlessly bombarding Gaza and entered the besieged strip to completely eliminate Hamas. As of now, more than 20,000 Palestinians have been killed, mostly women and children, while tens and thousands have been wounded and 90% of the territory has been displaced. The war has devastated much of northern Gaza, crippling medical facilities and triggering a humanitarian catastrophe.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking vessels in Red Sea shipping lanes and firing drones and missiles at Israel since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza over two months ago, in a campaign they say aims to support the Palestinians. They started by seizing a vehicle transport ship linked to Israel off Yemen and promised to continue such attacks till Israel halts its aggression.
Since then, over ten ships have been attacked in the strategic waterway, major shipping companies to suspend trade through the strategic waterway and prompted the US and allies to launch a new international mission called 'Operation Prosperity Guardian' to counter the attacks. Currently, 10-15% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, and international shipping companies are having to reroute through the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to the delivery of key goods and materials.
India-Canada diplomatic row
Relations between India and Canada, previously key allies, became heavily strained in September after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged that 'credible evidence' was found suggesting the role of Indian agents in the death of India-designated Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India rejected the claims as 'absurd and motivated' and slammed Canada for providing space to anti-India elements.
Nijjar was the chief of the Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and was gunned down outside his home in June. Since the allegations, India responded with a chain of reactions by expelling a top Canadian diplomat in a tit-for-tat move, cancelling visa services for Canadians and calling on Ottawa to reduce its diplomatic presence in New Delhi. Amid the strained relations, the US indicted an Indian official for his involvement in a failed assassination attempt on a US-based Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.
Earthquakes in Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan and China
In February, the Turkey-Syria border was rocked by a devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake, followed by another earthquake of magnitude 7.5 hours later. Considered the deadliest earthquake to hit earthquake-prone Turkey in over 20 years, more than 59,000 people were killed in Turkey and 8,000 in conflict-torn Syria, while tens and thousands were trapped under rubble.
Tragedy struck Afghanistan, another tremor-prone country, when a series of earthquakes ranging from magnitudes of 6.3 to 5.5 struck the nation, killing at least 2,400 people, mostly in the Herat region. Several villages were destroyed and tens and thousands of people were buried under the debris. Earlier this month, over 130 people were killed in a devastating 6.2-magnitude earthquake in China's Gansu and Qinghai provinces, the deadliest quake to strike the country in nine years.
The expansion of BRICS
Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the high-level BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa earlier this year, where the leaders from the five-nation bloc announced that five countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) - will join the group from 2024. With the addition of these six countries, BRICS now represents 42 percent of the world’s population and 36 percent of global GDP.
The pricing of the energy products may have been taken into consideration while deliberating on the new members of BRICS. The expansion of BRICS opens up new avenues for trade within these countries and seeks to reduce the prevalent dominance of the US dollar. Through this decision, India maintains its leadership role in providing a voice for the Global South and also enjoys friendly relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
India reaches the Moon
India scripted history on August 23 with the successful soft-landing of the Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on the Moon's south pole. Not only did it become the first nation in the world to reach the lunar south pole, but it is also the fourth country behind the United States, China and the erstwhile Soviet Union to reach the Moon. This has bolstered India's capacity to reshape the balance of power in space exploration globally.
No country has ever landed a rover on the treacherous South Pole that scientists believe could hold important reserves of frozen water and precious elements. The achievement garnered international praise, including from US Vice President Kamala Harris, Russian President Vladimir Putin, NASA and more. A few minutes before the landmark achievement, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended his best wishes at the high-level BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.
The Russia-Ukraine war and Prigozhin's rebellion
Last year, Russian forces invaded Ukraine as part of a 'special military operation' after tensions developed over Kyiv's apparent bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). More than 500 days later, the conflict sees no end as Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed to achieving 'de-nazification and de-militarisation' of Ukraine despite several sanctions. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict, while the US and EU are facing rising problems to provide economic and military assistance to Kyiv.
While the war impacted global trade and food security, Putin faced his biggest challenge when his erstwhile close confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin - the leader of Wagner mercenary group - launched a rebellion against Moscow by storming and capturing key cities. The mutiny was averted when Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko intervented and brokered a deal and convinced Wagner fighters to move into his country. A couple of months later, Prigozhin was killed in a mysterious plane crash and was laid to rest in a low-profile funeral.
COP28 and fossil fuels
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) hosted the 28th UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, where countries agreed on a 'historic' deal by agreeing, for the first time, to 'transition away' from fossil fuels. The deal mentioned 'accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power' and 'transitioning away from fossil fuels' in a 'just, orderly and equitable manner'.
Although the document did not mention 'phase out' of coal use, it marked the first time in almost 30 years of COP meetings to name all carbon-based fuels like oil and gas. In the past, countries have been reluctant to move away from the use of oil, gas and coal, which has created international divisions. Meanwhile, India urged global leaders to implement the Paris Agreement through the Global Stocktake process with a strong focus on the principles of equity and climate change.
Imran Khan's arrest in Pakistan and Nawaz Sharif's return
The year 2023 saw a sea change in the political landscape of Pakistan, when former PM Imran Khan was arrested and imprisoned in connection with the Toshakhana corruption case. Imran, who had accused the US of engineering his ouster in 2022, was accused of not disclosing details of expensive gifts he received during his tenure. His arrest was followed by several days of drama when his supporters clashed with security personnel and vandalised army facilities.
He was again convicted and imprisoned in the case in August, and while his conviction was suspended, he still remains imprisoned in the cipher case. The events paved the way for the return of three-time former PM Nawaz Sharif, who spent four years in self-imposed exile in London after being banned for assuming office for life and convictions in several cases. Since then, things have been going well for Nawaz, as he secured acquittals in all graft cases, clearing the way for his political comeback.
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