Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain in a tight race in the country's seven battleground states two days before the US Presidential election, according to the final New York Times/Siena College poll.
The opinion poll showed Vice President Harris with marginal leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin and former President Trump just ahead in Arizona. The two are in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, according to the poll, which surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from October 24 to November 2. In all seven states, the matchups were within the poll's 3.5% margin of error. However, some polls show Trump is leading in swing states.
About 40 per cent of the respondents had already voted and Harris led among those voters by 8 percentage points, while Trump leads with voters who say they are very likely to vote but have not yet done so, the poll found.
The tied race in Pennsylvania shows Trump gaining momentum in a state Harris had led by four percentage points in all prior New York Times polls, the outlet said. Both candidates are campaigning in battleground states this weekend, with Trump set to appear in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia on Sunday, while Harris will campaign in Michigan.
The swing counties
Across the seven main battleground states in 2024, there are 10 counties, out of more than 500, that voted for Trump in 2016 and then flipped to Joe Biden in 2020. Most are small and home to relatively few voters, with Arizona's Maricopa a notable exception. So it's not likely they'll swing an entire state all by themselves.
What these counties probably will do is provide an early indication of which candidate is performing best among the swing voters likely to decide a closely contested race. It doesn't take much for a flip. For example, the difference in Wisconsin, in both 2016 and 2020. was only about 20,000 votes.
North Carolina’s two Trump-Biden counties – New Hanover on the Atlantic Coast and Nash, northeast of Raleigh – are likely to be the first among the 10 to finish counting their vote on election night. Polls close next in Michigan’s Kent, Saginaw and Leelanau counties and Pennsylvania’s Erie and Northampton counties, followed by Wisconsin’s Sauk and Door. Maricopa is the closer.
(With inputs from agencies)
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