The United States has escalated its military operation against Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, unleashing a series of airstrikes over the weekend that claimed the lives of at least 53 individuals, including civilians. The airstrikes are part of a larger strategy by President Donald Trump to drain the strength of the Houthis and put pressure on their main ally, Iran.
Why is the US targeting the Houthis?
Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched over 100 attacks on merchant vessels using missiles and drones, sinking two ships and killing four sailors. The group claims its actions are in response to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. However, Washington has condemned these attacks as piracy and a threat to global trade.
Trump, in a Truth Social statement, defended the airstrikes as efforts to break up the Houthis' "unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism." He promised to apply "overwhelming lethal force" to secure the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, vital shipping routes for global commerce.
A shift in US military strategy
Although former President Joe Biden had already authorised strikes against Houthi positions beginning in January 2024, the new offensive represents a major escalation. During Biden's presidency, US forces carried out more than 260 strikes, but officials were careful not to trigger a wider war in Yemen.
Conversely, the Trump administration is expanding the target list. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, said that the campaign is intended to take down the Houthis' capacity to interfere with international shipping. "Some of the key people involved in those missile launches are no longer with us," he told CBS News, hinting at Houthi commander targeted killings.
What's next for the region?
The escalation has also sparked fears of more instability in the Middle East. The Houthis have already threatened to retaliate, and they have promised fresh attacks on "Israeli" vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Although no fresh attacks on commercial ships have been reported, analysts caution that the US attack might retaliate by encouraging the Houthis to broaden their targets beyond American warships.
Analysts at Eurasia Group have forecast that the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will endeavor to stay aloof from the conflict but stand a chance to experience fresh dangers to their oil infrastructure. BIMCO head of maritime security Jakob P. Larsen cautioned that the conflict would increasingly deter commercial traffic from the region.
Iran's role and response
Iran has long been arming the Houthis, though it denies taking a direct role. Iranian leaders have denounced US airstrikes but refrained from issuing threats of direct retaliation. Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami reinforced that the Houthis are working independently, potentially an effort not to provoke further US sanctions or military action. Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated that Iranian support troops aiding the Houthis could be targets of future attacks.
In the meantime, diplomatic tension continues to be high between Washington and Tehran. Iran is said to be mulling a reply to a letter from Trump looking to revive talks on its nuclear ambitions. The New York-based Soufan Center termed the US strikes as a "not-so-subtle signal" to Iran, and that Washington is ready to increase military pressure if diplomatic negotiations are stuck.
With no indication of de-escalation, Yemen and the Middle East as a whole are volatile, and fears of an extended conflict with worldwide implications are being raised.
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