Taipei: In a major rebuff to China, Taiwan's high-stakes presidential elections concluded with a victory for Lai Ching-te, the candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The strong rejection of Chinese threats by the voters is expected to escalate Taiwan's tensions with its arch-rival Beijing, who framed the polls as a choice between war and peace. Lai received over 5 million votes and more than 40 per cent of the vote share after 90 per cent of the votes were counted till 7:45 pm (local time).
Lai faced two opponents for the presidency - Hou Yu-ih of Taiwan's largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), which favours friendly relations with China, and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People's Party, only founded in 2019. Hou and Ko conceded defeat after receiving 33 per cent and 26 per cent of the votes respectively.
Lai has declared his intention to continue Tsai's policy that Taiwan is already independent and needs to make no declaration of independence that could spark a military attack from China. The Taiwanese vice president said he remains open to establishing a dialogue with Beijing without conceding the country's right to rule itself.
In the run-up to the election, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist and rebuffed his repeated calls for talks. Lai says he is committed to preserving peace across the Taiwan Strait and boosting the island's defences. China had ramped up its military incursions in a bid to pressurise Taiwanese voters not to support Lai citing his position on an independent Taiwan.
The turnout was described as positive, reaching 70 per cent in cities including Taipei, Tainan, and Taoyuan, with minor accidents like voters ripping up their ballot papers, taking pictures with cellphones, or flashing signs, according to local media.
What will happen now?
Lai was the presidential frontrunner and his victory in the ongoing elections is the most likely outcome. His win could bring an angry response from China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, and is expected to make things tough for the DPP candidate to pursue his policies.
If Lai's party loses the majority in the Parliament, his ability to pass legislation will be affected. He could, however, appoint a Cabinet that might have to include some opposition or non-party figures, but the opposition has repeatedly vilified the vice president over the China issue and may not agree to his requests.
That could slow down Taiwan's efforts to boost its defences and build new weapons such as submarines and fighter jets if spending bills are delayed or not passed. China can also respond militarily to Lai's victory or ramp up economic pressure on the self-governed island.
Economically, Lai wants to continue cutting reliance on China and trade more with like-minded democratic partners. But he has repeatedly pledged not to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, as he and incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen have rejected China's sovereignty claims. China's Taiwan Affairs Office on Thursday labelled Lai as an "obstinate Taiwan independence worker" that would bring "cross-strait confrontation and conflict".
Hou wanted to restart engagement beginning with people-to-people exchanges and has, like China, accused Lai of supporting Taiwan's formal independence. Lai says Hou is pro-Beijing, which Hou rejects. Ko also wanted to re-engage China but insisted that that cannot come at the expense of protecting Taiwan's democracy and way of life.
The parliamentary elections are equally important, especially if no party wins a majority, potentially hindering the new president's ability to pass legislation and spending, especially for defence.
Fears of escalating tensions with China
Both China and Taiwan's key ally, the US, were closely watching the elections, weighing in on political and economic issues they hope will sway voters. The US has strongly backed Taiwan against China's military threats and has urged Beijing to refrain from interfering in the electoral process. Taiwan's government believes that China is likely to attempt to put pressure on its incoming president and tensions between the two countries are likely to increase.
It is worth mentioning Taiwan split with China in 1949 after a civil war. However, China still calls the island nation its own. Even it provoked Taipei to war following then-US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island nation in August last year. In fact, the ruling Communist Party says the island is obliged to rejoin the mainland, by force if necessary.
China remains the one subject that can be ignored but not avoided, as Beijing has stepped up its military incursions on the Taiwan Strait with the purported aim of putting pressure on the island country. China has continued flying fighter planes and sailing warships near the island to put teeth behind its pledge to blockade, intimidate, or invade. Apart from China, voters are focusing on issues like the sluggish economy and expensive housing.
Taiwan's defence ministry on Friday said it detected five Chinese balloons over the Taiwan Strait within the past 24 hours, one of which crossed the island, the latest in a spate of such balloons the ministry says it has spotted over the past month.
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently vowed to prevent anyone from trying to 'split' Taiwan from the Chinese mainland "in any way", asserting that the reunification of the Chinese "motherland" is an irreversible trend. Additionally, the Chinese government has threatened to place more trade sanctions on Taiwan if the ruling DPP "stubbornly" adheres to supporting independence.
Apart from China, domestic issues have dominated the campaign like sluggish economy and expensive housing. The Taiwanese economy grew just 1.4% last year, partly reflecting inevitable cycles in demand for computer chips and other exports from its trade-dependent manufacturing base and the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Long-term challenges such as unaffordable housing and wage stagnation topped voters' concerns.
(with inputs from agencies)
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