What is the Minsk agreement and could it have prevented Russia from invading Ukraine? EXPLAINED

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Not long before Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that the only way for peace talks to prevail between Russia and Ukraine was through the Minsk agreement, a deal yet to be implemented, seven years after getting agreed upon.

As Russian forces enter Ukraine reaching its capital Kyiv, it is important to know how this agreement could or could not have prevented the invasion. But first, what is the Minsk agreement?

Minsk Agreements

The Minsk agreement or Minsk protocol, started out as an agreement in 2014, which later called for another version of it, hence leading to the 'Minsk Agreements'. They comprise of Minsk I and Minsk II, signed in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

The Minsk I was an agreement between Ukraine and separatist forces backed by Russia, where both parties mutually agreed to a ceasefire. This transpired after Crimea's annexation by Russia earlier that year. It was 12- point agreement that failed because both parties failed to abide by it.

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Soon after on February 15, 2015, Minsk II was signed in the presence of the representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbass). Both agreements were signed in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

This was a 13-point agreement with the following important points:

1. Both parties agreed to withdraw all heavy weaponry.
2. The OSCE is in charge of monitoring and verification.
3. In accordance with Ukrainian legislation, begin a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
4. Accept special status of Donestk and Luhansk by a parliament resolution.
5. Amnesty and pardon for those who took part in the fighting.
6. A swap of hostages and detainees.
7. The provision of humanitarian aid.
8. Resumption of social and economic ties, including retirement benefits.
9. The Ukrainian government must reclaim full control of the state boundary.
10. All foreign armed formations, military equipment, and mercenaries must be withdrawn.
11. Decentralization and constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a focus on Donetsk and Luhansk.
12. Elections will be held in Donetsk and Luhansk on terms that have been agreed upon with their representatives.
13. Intensify the activities of a Trilateral Contact Group that includes Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE.

Why do the Minsk agreements stand unimplemented?

All the 13 pointers mentioned in the agreement are looked at differently by Ukraine and Russia. Despite the draft of the Minsk agreement, ceasefire violations remained common in the separatist regions of Ukraine.

Also Read: The story behind Ukraine’s separatist regions | EXPLAINED

While the regions (Donetsk and Luhansk) argued that there were no elections despite what the Minsk agreement said, Ukraine argued that heavy weaponry has still not been withdrawn from Ukraine by Russia. However, the catch here was that Russia never agreed it backs any forces present in Ukraine nor provides any arms to them.

Could the Minsk Agreement have prevented Ukraine's invasion by Russia?

On Thursday, Russia finally entered its troops inside Ukraine. Not so surprisingly, the events transpired soon after the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk) were declared independent by Russia. With this, the slightest hope of the Minsk agreement being helpful went to vain.

The agreement was signed keeping in mind that the separatist regions are part of Ukraine. However, declaring them independent, gave a free pass to Russia to send more troops to Ukraine's borders, and eventually, invade it.

For more than seven years now, the Minsk agreement remains unimplemented. Russia's claim that it is not a party to the conflict and hence is not bound by its terms has been a major roadblock. This also explains why Russia never thought to consider International Law before it announced the Donbas region's independence.

Also Read: Russia-Ukraine conflict: What Moscow wants, the West's interests | EXPLAINED