Nearly two days after Russia blocked the movement of Ukrainian grain vessels by terminating the agreement brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, President Vladimir Putin said "Moscow would return to grain deal if its demands 'fully' met.
Earlier on Monday, the Kremlin, while announcing the termination, argued that "the part of the Black Sea agreement that concerns Russia has not yet been fulfilled".
What is the Russia-Ukraine grain deal?
It is worth mentioning Russia and Ukraine account for major wheat exports to the world, especially African nations. It exports shipments through the Black Sea. However, following the relentless war, Moscow blocked the route, resulting in spiralling costs of wheat, cereals and other agricultural products.
This also showcased the worst impact on African nations. In fact, several countries were on the verge of starvation. In April 2022, the Secretary-General met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to propose the plan.
Subsequently, on July 27 last year, the United Nations and Turkey brokered a deal in Istanbul which was dubbed a "grain deal".
What does Russia say behind the decision?
Although there were speculations that the Kremlin's latest came in line with the Crimean Bridge explosion, President's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Moscow had notified Kyiv about the same earlier. Kremlin spokesperson asserted that today's decision was "unrelated" to an overnight attack on the bridge, which he called a “terrorist act” and blamed on Ukraine.
In fact, he warned that Moscow would continue the suspension unless and until its demands to get its own agricultural shipments to the world were met positively.
In contradiction, the ship data shows, that tracks the movement of vessels moving in the sea, Moscow has been shipping record amounts of wheat and its fertilizers.
What does Ukraine say?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Office has reacted sharply to the development and called it a "violation of international norms" and argued that "the Black Sea is not Russia's internal waters and is not subject to its jurisdiction".
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Head of the Office of the President, underscored that grain cannot be a legitimate military target and added Ukraine has agency in terms of working with external partners. Further, he stressed that several countries need Ukrainian grain in the direct sense of the word.
"If a bunch of people somewhere in the Kremlin think that they supposedly have the right to decide whether food will be on the table in different countries: Egypt or Sudan, Yemen or Bangladesh, China or India, Türkiye or Indonesia... then the world has an opportunity to show that blackmail is not allowed to anyone," Zelenskyy said in a video address.
Impact: Wheat prices increase sharply
According to a UN report, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly allowed the export of 36.2 million tons of food from Ukraine to the world, especially African nations. In fact, Zelenskyy has often dubbed the grain export as the ‘breadbasket of the world’. Besides, more than 79 countries are heavily dependent on grain export amid the fact climate change wreaks havoc across continents and destroys crops.
According to multiple media reports, wheat prices took a sharp jump of 3.5 percent barely minutes after the development hit the headlines across the world. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 25% of the global grain supply.
“You will have a new spike for sure (if the deal isn’t renewed). The duration of that spike will depend a lot on how markets will respond," news agency Associated Press had quoted UN Food and Agriculture Organisation chief economist Maximo Torero as saying.
