Galwan standoff: Decoding China’s unusually aggressive stand against India
The year was 2014. Narendra Modi had newly become Prime Minister of India. China extended a special invitation and invited several Indian journalists to Beijing and Shanghai. Veteran journalist Swapan Dasgupta was like a chief of our squad of journalists going to China.
"Do you know I've never been to China before?" Swapan Dasgupta told me during a conversation at Delhi airport.
I was surprised.
"How? You've literally been to every corner of the world. Then why not to China?" I asked. He said that Chinese visa was never granted to him.
It is often said that if anyone has travelled to Taiwan, it becomes hard for him to obtain a Chinese visa.
Swapan Dasgupta had visited Taiwan many times. He was considered a right-wing intellectual and was a public figure.
But then he was granted a Chinese visa in 2014. What exactly happened?
It is worth recalling this six-year-old incident to understand China.
An Indian diplomat in Shanghai once told me, China never takes any decision in haste. There is always careful planning behind every step it takes.
In all probability, China wanted to start on a good note with India that had elected a new Prime Minister. At that time Sushma Swaraj was the Foreign Minister. S Jaishankar was Foreign Secretary. He was also India's ambassador to China. In 2014, we saw how Sushma Swaraj and S Jaishankar were received by the Chinese.
Great diplomatic importance was accorded to them. The curiosity of China's state-controlled media about India was worth observing.
When PM Modi came to power, he made a gesture of goodwill by inviting heads of states of SAARC countries for his oath-taking ceremony. During his time in office, PM Modi made a grand gesture as he sat on a Jhoola (swing) with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the banks of Sabarmati river. It's worth noting that even when the USA had refused to give visa to Narendra Modi when he was Chief Minister of Gujarat, China had readily taken CM Modi to Beijing.
However, there were several incidents with China during PM Narendra Modi's tenure. Doklam standoff took place in the year 2017. The stalemate went on for 73 days. In May 2020, Indian and Chinese forces eyed each other in a standoff in Ladakh.
After all, why is China hell-bent on creating issues at border especially when the world is tackling coronavirus pandemic? Why did China enter the Indian mainland? Why did they occupy part of Pangong Lake? Why has Chinese Army deployment increased in Galwan Valley?
Differences between India and China have arisen since 1951. China occupies Aksai Chin. Land captured by China in 1962 war has not been returned to India.
There is no question about China's expansionist intentions and aggressive manoeuvring. The question is, why did China choose to rake up a dispute with India in Ladakh right in the middle of coronavirus pandemic?
Coronavirus pandemic started in China. US President Donald Trump went so far as to say that it was a "Chinese virus". China has been cornered globally. Japan government has appealed to Japanese businessmen to pull their investments from Chinese economy.
Global isolation may be one of the reasons why China is trying to rake up disputes with India.
Moreover, there are increasing global calls for an investigation within China to ascertain whether its government had any role behind coronavirus pandemic. China fears such an investigation. Incidentally India's Health Minister Harsh Vardhan is Chairman of the Executive Board of the World Health Organisation. Any investigation into Chinese role behind coronavirus pandemic will increase China's problems.
The third reason behind Chinese intrusion in India may be the US position of not holding talks with China until coronavirus situation is resolved.
Protests in Hong Kong and Taiwan's call for autonomy may be other reasons why China is feeling anxious. It may be that as China feels cornered on many fronts, it chose to rake up border issue with India.
China has to keep Pakistan happy as well. Pakistan has made sounds of displeasure over the abolition of Article 370 and reorganisation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.
If not for all these reasons, why would China create problems when other hotspots of global political crises (North Korea, Israel-Palestine etc.) are relatively stable for the time being?
Chinese move in Ladakh is not a sudden reflex. There is careful planning behind it. This is in China's DNA.
It may be true that for a country like India, busy in fighting coronavirus, Chinese intrusion came as a surprise.
It may also be possible that there was a weakness in some intelligence and defence functions. But PM Modi immediately addressed the situation.
He held meeting with National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat. This was the same set of people PM Modi had gone into a huddle with at the time of Doklam issue in 2017.
Under PM Modi's instructions, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh asked Indian Army to be ready for any situation. Chinese President Xi Jinping was giving same orders to the Chinese Army.
Narendra Modi's war policy was to project power at one hand and control the situation with other. The USA had offered to mediate between India and China but both countries rejected the offer. Under Chinese pressure, even Nepal flexed muscles against India and cleared a map that included Indian territories within Nepali borders. However, it didn't dare start a misadventure the way Chinese did.
Now, China has started backchannel politics using sweet words and changing colours. China's foreign minister has said that there was no chance of a war with India. Chinese ambassador in New Delhi said that the Elephant and the Dragon will dance together again. This is the success of Modi's policy.
Indian and Chinese armies have held talks to de-escalate situation at Galwan Valley. The talks took place Chushul-Moldo army camp in Ladakh. Both countries was a peaceful resolution. These are encouraging signs.
But with a country like China, India has to always be cautious. After all, expansionism and readiness for long-term planning is in China's very DNA.
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