German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to face a confidence vote in the German parliament on Monday, which he is likely to lose. This will see Germany, the most populous member and biggest economy in the European Union, hold an early election in February. Earlier, on November 6, Scholz's three-party government collapsed as the chancellor fired his finance minister in a long-running dispute over how to revitalise Germany's stagnant economy. It led to the minister's pro-business party quitting the coalition, leaving the remaining two centre-left partners without a majority in parliament.
Several major parties agreed to hold a parliamentary election in February, which is seven months early than the originally planned election schedule. Importantly, in post-World War II Germany, the constitution doesn't allow the Bundestag, the parliament's lower house, to dissolve itself. Therefore, a confidence vote is needed to facilitate an early election.
Parties' standing in the Bundestag
In the German parliament, Scholz's Social Democrats have 207 seats in the Bundestag, who are expected to vote for the chancellor. Coalition partners, including the environmentalist Greens with 117 votes, are likely to abstain. It is to be noted that to continue to power, Scholz would need 367 in the 733-seat chamber, which he does not appear to be getting close to.
Once Scholz loses the confidence vote, it will up to up to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag. Last month, Steinmeier had said that Germany needed stable majorities and a government which is capable of acting. Once parliament is dissolved, the election must be held within 60 days.
Friedrich Merz emerges as the main challenger
Scholz, who formally requested the confidence vote to take place on Wednesday, faces the main challenge from center-right leader Friedrich Merz. On Saturday, Merz predicted the upcoming election to be “one of the hardest election campaigns” in modern German history, as Scholz's Social Democrats “have their backs to the wall.
He said that it's crucial to make the economy more competitive, because “the competitiveness of our economy is the precondition for everything else."
According to polls, Scholz's party trails behind Merz's main opposition Union bloc. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, whose Greens are further back, is also in the race for the top job.
Moreover, far-right Alternative for Germany, which is polling strongly, has nominated Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor but has no chance of taking the job because other parties refuse to work with it.
Confidence votes are not a common phenomenon in Germany, as it is only the sixth time in its postwar history that a chancellor has called one.
(With inputs from agency)
