Kathmandu: Nepal's Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' is set to take his fifth vote of confidence that he is likely to lose as his rival KP Sharma Oli is poised to return to power after striking a late-night coalition deal with the Nepali Congress. This would be Dahal's fifth vote of confidence in his 19 months of power since entering mainstream politics in 2006.
All developments point to a defeat for the 69-year-old leader as the majority weighing parties in the Parliament - the Nepali Congress, CPN- UML (Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist) and Janata Samajbadi Party have issued a whip to its lawmakers to stand against the confidence motion to be tabled today.
The Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML) - have struck a midnight deal to form a new alliance to oust Dahal's CPN Maoist Centre, after which former PM KP Sharma Oli-led party withdrew support from the ruling coalition barely four months after joining it. The agreement was signed at midnight on July 1 by Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML chairman Oli, as per local reports.
The CPN-UML has 78 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives while the Nepali Congress has 89. Their combined strength is 167, more than the 138 seats required for a majority. Meanwhile, Prachanda's Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) has 32 seats. At best, he is likely to secure 63 votes, which is well short of the majority required.
KP Sharma Oli set to return to power
The midnight deal to form a new 'national consensus government' in the politically fragile Himalayan nation was aimed at ousting Prachanda from power. Oli and Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba met to lay the ground for a potential new political alliance between the two parties, following which Oli's CPN-UML ended its association with the Prachanda-led government barely four months after extending support to it.
Under the agreement, Oli will lead a new ‘national consensus government' for a year and a half. Nepali Deuba will be the prime minister for the remaining term till the next election. Under Oli's tenure, the CPN-UML will take control of ministries, including the Prime Minister's position and the Finance Ministry. Similarly, the Nepali Congress will oversee ten ministries, including the Home Ministry.
Last week, the CPN-UML demanded Prachanda's immediate resignation after the prime minister said that he is preparing to face a vote of confidence in the Parliament on Friday, given the withdrawal of support by some allies. The Nepali Prime Minister had announced that he would not quit after the resignation of eight Cabinet ministers belonging to the CPN-UML and instead face a vote of confidence in Parliament.
How things fell apart for Prachanda?
Apart from the Congress and CPN-UML, other parties namely the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (14), Janamat Party (6), Janata Samajbadi Party (12), Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (4) and Nagarik Unmukti Party (3) have already fielded themselves to vote against the confidence motion, further cementing Prachanda's expected defeat.
This is a bit of a fall for the former guerilla leader turned PM Dahal, who secured a 99 per cent vote in his first vote of confidence in early 2023, becoming the first Nepali leader to win such a huge support. Despite being the third largest party in the parliament, Dahal enjoyed the continued support of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to remain in power.
Within three months of being in power, Dahal dumped CPN-UML to align with the Nepali Congress and took his second vote of confidence on March 20. He then took his third-floor test on March 13, 2024, after ending his nearly 15-month partnership with the Nepali Congress. He took his fourth confidence vote in May after the Janata Samajbadi Party withdrew its support. Prachanda's support has notably declined in successive confidence votes.
Differences between Oli and Prime Minister Prachanda had been steadily building, and Oli was unhappy with the recent budget allocations made by the government for the fiscal year 2024-25, which he had publicly spoken about. Worried by the closed-door meeting between Deuba and Oli, Prachanda had gone to meet Oli to assure that the government is serious about addressing issues raised by CPN-UML, including its concern about the new budget, observers said.
After the coalition deal was announced, Prachanda made all stops to prevent Oli's return to power, including an offer to Deuba to back him as PM, as per reports. It is pertinent to mention that Nepal has had 13 governments in the last 16 years, indicating the fragile nature of the Himalayan nation's political system.
(with inputs from agencies)
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