Are Israel and Lebanon staring at an all-out war after a ‘Hezbollah’ rocket killed 12 children on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday? Israel has blamed the militant group for the attack while the latter, in a rare move, has denied its responsibility. The Israelis called it the deadliest attack on civilians since the October 7 attack by Hamas which killed hundreds of people. The latest assault has raised fears of a broader regional war between Israel and Hezbollah with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cutting short his US visit and stating that Hezbollah “will pay a heavy price for this attack, one that it has not paid so far.”
The White House National Security Council said that it was speaking with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts and working on a diplomatic solution to “end all attacks once and for all” in the border area between Israel and Lebanon.
According to the Israeli military, it struck various targets inside Lebanon overnight into Sunday. Hezbollah said that it also carried out strikes. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
The Saturday’s attack on children came as Israel and Hamas are negotiating a cease-fire proposal to put an end to nearly 10-month war in Gaza.
What happened on Saturday?
A rocket dropped into a soccer field where dozens of children and teens were playing in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, about 12 kilometres south of Lebanon and next to the Syrian border. The attack claimed the lives of 12 children and left 20 others injured, Israeli military said.
It said that it was investigating why the rocket could not be intercepted. A bomb shelter was steps away from the blackened field.
The Druze are a religious sect that began as an offshoot of Shiite Islam and has communities in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. There are about 25,000 Druze in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, according to Yusri Hazran of the Hebrew University.
The Druze are considered among Israel’s most loyal citizens, although those in the Golan Heights have a more fraught relationship with authorities. Israel captured the Golan, a strategic plateau, from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in 1981. Much of the international community considers the area to be occupied territory. While Druze leaders there profess allegiance to Syria, relations with Israel are normally good.
What could this mean for wider war?
The attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border have simmered below the threshold of all-out war since the beginning of war in Gaza, however, the sheer number of young fatalities and injuries in the Saturday’s attack could push Israel to respond more severely.
PM Netanyahu was weighing options on Sunday after hurrying home from the US and issuing a stern warning to Hezbollah. The security Cabinet authorised him and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to decide how and when to respond.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “every indication” showed the rocket came from Hezbollah. The Israeli military’s Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said an Iranian-made Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram (117-pound) warhead belonging to Hezbollah was fired.
Hezbollah began firing at Israel the day after Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7. Israel responded by targeting what it calls Hezbollah’s military infrastructure with airstrikes and drones. Most attacks have been confined to border areas, though Israel has assassinated Hezbollah and Hamas leadership farther north in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of people along the border have evacuated.
Since early October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 500 people, including around 90 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed.
According to Barak Ben-Zur, a researcher at the International Institute of Counter-Terrorism, Hezbollah has far superior firepower than Hamas and therefore, igniting a war in Israel’s northern border while it is already engaged in Gaza would overburden the military.
Any conflict could bring in Iran, which warned Israel that a strong reaction would lead to “unprecedented consequences.” Iran and Israel’s shadow war burst into the open in April, when Iran launched 300 missiles and drones at Israel, most of them intercepted, in response to the killing of an Iranian general.
The United Nations secretary-general has advocated for maximum restraint by all parties.
How could this impact the war in Gaza?
Officials from the United States, Egypt and Qatar were meeting Sunday with Israeli officials in Rome in the latest push for a cease-fire deal in Gaza. The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, returned home and negotiations will continue in the coming days, Netanyahu’s office said.
An Egyptian official said the attack in the Golan Heights could give urgency to negotiations. “Both fronts are connected,” he said. “A cease-fire in Gaza will lead to a cease-fire with Hezbollah.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorised to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
(With AP inputs)
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