Ismail Haniyeh killed: In a sign of major escalation in the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly ordered a direct assault on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday, according to three officials briefed on the order. Haniyeh's shocking death dealt a major blow to Hamas and came at a critical time of the Israel-Hamas war.
According to a report by the New York Times, Khamenei gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday, shortly after the Iranian media announced that Haniyeh was killed, as per the three Iranian officials speaking on the condition of anonymity. Iran and Hamas had accused Israel of the assassination, while Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its role, but has a long history of killing enemies abroad.
Notably, Iran came close to an all-out war with Israel in April, when it fired hundreds of missiles and drones in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Syria that killed several Iranian military commanders in Damascus. While it was the biggest direct attack by Iran in the decades of its shadow war with Israel, the damage was limited as almost all the weapons were shot down by Israel and its allies.
Haniyeh's death risks escalation of conflict
Haniyeh was killed by a missile that hit him "directly" in a state guesthouse where he was staying in Tehran while attending Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's swearing-in ceremony, according to senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya. He was the face of Hamas' international diplomacy to represent the militant group at peace talks mediated by Egypt and Qatar during the nearly ten-month war in Gaza.
The suspected assassination by Israel of Hamas' Haniyeh in Iran on Wednesday and Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander, in Beirut a few hours earlier increases the risk of a dangerous escalation in Israel's Gaza war and of a regional conflagration between Israel, Iran and its proxies. It indicates that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to shift the war’s rules of engagement, moving beyond Gaza to directly eliminate Hamas leaders and strike Iran proxies elsewhere, officials and analysts in the region said.
The attack is seen by analysts and officials as one of Israel's biggest blows yet to Iran and its allies. Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Haniyeh's killing sent shockwaves through Iran's top leadership, who are now deeply concerned that their security forces may have been infiltrated by Israel. Khamenei said avenging the killing is Iran's "duty" as it occurred in the Iranian capital.
Reactions to Haniyeh's death
Iran declared three days of national mourning in Haniyeh's honour and said the US bore responsibility because of its support for Israel. Hamas' armed wing said in a statement Haniyeh's killing would "take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions".
In Turkey, thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched through the streets of central Istanbul late on Wednesday to protest Haniyeh's killing. Protesters in Istanbul's Fatih district held posters with Haniyeh's photo, chanted "murderer Israel, get out of Palestine" and waved Turkish and Palestinian flags.
The US expressed concern about the potential for escalation, but the White House said it did not see that as imminent or inevitable and was working to prevent it from happening. This came as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was not involved in Haniyeh's assassination. Additionally, the US advised citizens not to travel to Lebanon, and two US airlines, United and Delta, paused flights to Tel Aviv.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no mention of Haniyeh's killing in a televised statement on Wednesday but said Israel had delivered crushing blows to Iran's proxies of late, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and would respond forcefully to any attack. "We are prepared for any scenario and we will stand united and determined against any threat. Israel will exact a heavy price for any aggression against us from any arena," he said.
Who is Haniyeh's successor?
The most likely successor is Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh's deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials said. Under Meshaal, Hamas has emerged as an ever more important player in the Middle East conflict due to his charisma, popularity and regional standing, analysts said. Meshaal narrowly survived an assassination attempt ordered by Netanyahu in 1997.
Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli cities, will remain the commander in Gaza. The killing of Haniyeh, a crucial interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations has ended any chance of an imminent agreement, Hamas sources and analysts say.
Qatar and Egypt, which have acted as mediators in faltering ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, said the killing of the Hamas leader could jeopardise efforts to secure a truce in Gaza. "Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?" Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on X.
(with inputs from Reuters)
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