Jakarta: Indonesia's Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander accused of human rights atrocities, has claimed victory in Wednesday's presidential elections as unofficial vote counts show him with a huge lead over his rivals. Subianto won about 58 per cent of votes according to four pollsters, based on "quick count" ballots at samples of voting stations nationwide.
Appearing before supporters alongside his running mate, the incumbent president's son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 72-year-old Subianto, declared the outcome "a victory for all Indonesians", in a rousing speech that drew roars and applause. Notably, Subianto was once banned from entering the United States due to his human rights record.
There was no declaration by electoral officials and the two former provincial governors who also contested the election in the world’s third-largest democracy have not conceded defeat. The number of votes tallied ranged from about 86 per cent to 95 per cent as of 7:30 pm. Rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo trailed with about 25 per cent and 17 per cent respectively
"We are grateful for the quick count results. All the calculation, all pollsters including those on our rivals' side, the figures showed a Prabowo-Gibran win in one round," he said. "We will assemble a government consisting of the best sons and daughters of Indonesia."
Baswedan and Pranowo urged the public not to draw conclusions on the outcome and to await the official result, which is expected by March 20 at the latest. Their campaign teams said they were investigating reports of electoral violations, both calling it "structural, systematic and massive fraud" but did not provide any evidence.
The largest single-day election
Nearly 259,000 candidates contested for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands on Wednesday. A coalition of parties backing Subianto had about 42 per cent of votes, while an alliance behind rival Baswedan had 27 per cent, indicating a potential Subianto-led government could have strong parliamentary backing.
To win in a single round, a candidate needs more than 50 per cent of votes cast and at least 20 per cent of the ballot in half of the country's provinces. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held in June.
Subianto has the tacit backing of the wildly popular incumbent Joko Widodo, who is betting on his former rival as a continuity candidate to preserve his legacy, including the inclusion of his 36-year-old son Gibran on the ticket. His influence could be the deciding factor in who takes the helm of the country with an economy of $1.3 trillion.
Who is Prabowo Subianto?
Subianto, a former lieutenant general who married one of former Indonesian dictator Suharto’s daughters, was a longtime commander in the army special forces, called Kopassus. He was dishonourably discharged in 1998 after Kopassus forces kidnapped and tortured political opponents of Suharto.
Of at least 22 activists kidnapped that year, 13 remain missing to this day, and their families protest weekly outside the presidential palace demanding the activists be accounted for. Subianto never faced a trial and vehemently denied any involvement, although several of his men were tried and convicted.
High stakes for US and China
The election also has high stakes for the United States and China, since Indonesia has a huge domestic market, natural resources like nickel and palm oil, and diplomatic influence with its Southeast Asian neighbours.
Outgoing President Joko Widodo’s foreign policy avoids criticism of Beijing and Washington but also rejects alignment with either power. The delicate balancing act has won considerable Chinese trade and investment for Indonesia, including a $7.3 billion high-speed railway that was largely funded by China, while Jakarta has also boosted defence ties and intensified military exercises with the US.
These policies would likely continue if election frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, the current defence minister whose vice presidential running mate is Widodo’s eldest son, wins, according to analysts. “None of the major structural features of defence and foreign policy, I think, will change,” said Evan Laksmana, a Southeast Asia security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore.
The US and China have both seen how the emergence of a new leader in the region can threaten their interests. Rodrigo Duterte, after capturing the Philippine presidency on an anti-crime platform in 2016, became one of the most vocal critics in Asia of US security policy while nurturing close ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
What it means for India?
Incumbent President Widodo enjoys friendly relations with India. The two countries elevated their relations into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Indonesia. PM Modi also attended the 20th ASEAN-India Summit back in September last year in Jakarta. Trade between the two Asian countries also reached $40 billion.
Subianto, the oldest presidential candidate at 72, lost in two previous runs to Widodo but was the front-runner in independent surveys. He picked Widodo’s eldest son, as his vice-presidential running mate in a move that could shore up his chances given the outgoing president’s popularity.
Jokowi has reached his limit of two terms and had not explicitly backed a candidate, but he made highly publicised appearances with Prabowo at state events, prompting a storm of criticism that he has over-reached, unlike predecessors who were neutral over their succession. Critics have accused Widodo of trying to build a political dynasty despite him being the first president to emerge outside the political and military elite since the 1998 end of the dictatorial rule of Suharto, characterized by widespread human rights violations, plunder and political unrest.
(with inputs from agencies)
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