Paris: Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) is not expected to win a majority of seats in next Sunday's parliamentary run-off election, according to a poll, suggesting that efforts made by mainstream parties to block the far right might work. Macron earlier suffered a major setback as the RN was seen winning around 34 per cent of the vote, as per exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe.
The RN and its allies would get just 190 to 220 seats, according to the poll, while the centre-right Republicans (LR) would win 30 to 50 seats. This could rule out the possibility of a far-right minority government supported by part of the LR parliamentary group. Notably, the RN needs to win 289 seats out of the 577-member National Assembly to form the government, and may now try to persuade its allies.
This prediction was published after more than 200 candidates across the political spectrum withdrew their candidacies to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN candidate in their voting district, in a process known as the "Republican front." Before the withdrawals, pollsters had calculated the first round put the RN on track for 250-300 seats.
After the withdrawals, there were a record-breaking 92 three or four-way battles to come, according to a Reuters tally. Three-way votes favour the RN, while two-way contests are seen as better for the anti-RN alliance, experts say. The Harris poll showed that the leftist New Popular Front alliance would win 159 to 183 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance would win just 110 to 135 seats.
Earlier projections
The RN's share of the vote was comfortably ahead of leftist and centrist rivals in earlier projections, including Macron's Together alliance, whose bloc was seen winning 20.5-23 per cent. The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29 per cent of the vote, the exit polls showed. The exit polls were in line with opinion surveys ahead of the election, and were met with jubilation by Le Pen's supporters.
However, they provided little clarity on whether the anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. A longtime pariah for many in France, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. Le Pen has sought to clean up the image of a party known for racism and antisemitism, a tactic that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.
Macron, who announced snap elections after a drubbing by the far-right in the European Parliament elections, called on voters to rally behind candidates who are "clearly Republican and democratic", which, based on his recent declarations, would exclude candidates from the RN and from the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Political leaders from the centre-left and far-left all called on their third-placed candidates to drop out.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, a close ally of Macron, said earlier on Wednesday that he believed the cross-party bid to deprive the far-right RN of a majority could succeed. However, he dismissed suggestions that Macron's centrists could look to form a cross-party government in the event of a hung parliament, proposing that moderates in the assembly worked together to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis instead.
What could happen in France?
Things are particularly difficult for Macron - an outright RN victory would force him to "cohabit" with a government hostile to his vision of European sovereignty. Even a parliament with no overall majority, resulting in an unwieldy coalition or parties cooperating case-by-case, would deprive Macron of a government committed to his policies.
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN party president, said he was ready to be prime minister - only if his party wins an absolute majority. He has ruled out trying to form a minority government and neither Macron nor the NFP leftist group will form an alliance with him. "I will be a "cohabitation" Prime Minister, respectful of the constitution and of the office of President of the Republic, but uncompromising about the policies we will implement," he said.
In a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Macron rejected the option of a coalition that would include the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party of Jean-Luc Melenchon, one participant said. Their comments underline that, even if the RN does not come to power, France could face months of political uncertainty through to the end of Macron's term in 2027, when RN's Le Pen is widely expected to mount a challenge for the presidency itself.
The RN came out well ahead in Sunday's first-round vote after Macron's gamble on a snap election backfired, leaving his centrist camp in a lowly third place behind the RN and a hastily formed left-wing alliance. Le Pen has said she could reach out to other parties if the RN falls short of an absolute majority.
Le Pen has worked for years to soften the image of the RN, but rights groups cite concerns about its "national preference" and anti-migrant policies, while its profound Euroscepticism would pose serious threats to future European integration. It has signalled plans to reverse Macron's reforms, such as his unpopular move to increase the retirement age, but economists question whether RN spending plans are fully funded.
(with inputs from Reuters)
