Brussels: The four-day election at the European Union has shown an unprecedented dominance of far-right parties over ruling parties in France and Germany, the bloc's traditional driving parties. The single biggest loser of the elections was French President Emmanuel Macron, who was forced to call for snap national elections after a drubbing from Marine Le Pen's National Rally party.
In the election, citizens of European Union countries elect their representatives as Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The European Parliament is a transnational assembly that represents the interests of EU citizens at the European level. A total of 720 Members of this parliament decide on laws and policies that affect all 27 countries of this bloc, from economy to climate change.
Apart from Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats also suffered as the extreme-right Alternative for Germany shrugged off scandals to make massive gains in the EU elections. On the other hand, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy displayed a strong performance with 28 per cent of the votes, boosting her leadership at home and consolidating her kingmaker role in Europe.
Meanwhile, Green and pro-business liberal groups across Europe suffered heavy defeats, but mainstream formations held their ground, with the centre-right European People’s Party remaining the biggest bloc in the 27-nation EU’s assembly. For the next five years, it will be harder for the European Parliament to make decisions.
Main takeaways: Macron's loss sends shockwaves
Easily the single biggest loser in the EU elections was Macron, whose decision to call for snap elections amounts to a "roll of the dice" on his political future and that of France, immediately hitting French stocks and government bonds and causing the euro to go down. Le Pen’s anti-immigration, nationalist party was estimated to get around 31-32 per cent of the vote, more than double that of Macron's Renaissance party.
The outcome could hand Le Pen's party a great deal of power and can lead to a win at home if they can transform their rising popularity at home. If the eurosceptic, anti-immigration RN did score a majority, Macron would remain president for three more years and continue to be in charge of defence and foreign policy. However, he would lose the power to change the domestic agenda.
'We're ready for it,” said Le Pen on Macron's move, who was the runner-up to Macron in the last two presidential electionsThe EU election results were a hard blow for Macron, who has been advocating for Europe-wide efforts to defend Ukraine and the need for the EU to boost its own defences and industry.
A shock for Germany's Olaf Scholz
Scholz’s ruling Social Democrats recorded their worst post-World War II result in a nationwide vote, with 13.9 per cent of the votes. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished second with around 15.9 per cent votes, despite suffering a set of recent setbacks. These include scandals surrounding its two lead candidates, one of whom appeared to defend some Nazi Germans.
However, voters have appeared to shrug off those setbacks. The result is better than the AfD’s 11 per cent in 2019 but still short of poll ratings earlier this year. Germany’s opposition centre-right Union bloc took 30 per cent of the vote. Germany is not considering a snap poll after EU elections brought significant losses for the country's governing coalition, according to a government spokesperson.
The results could prompt more of the infighting that just cost the government dearly. A clear win for Germany's mainstream conservative opposition boosts its confidence as the country begins to look ahead to a national election expected in the fall of 2025, but raises questions about why it isn't benefiting more from the unpopularity of Scholz's government.
Von der Leyen's centre-right party holds
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen's centre-right European People's Party (EPP) is the biggest winner in this election, projecting to clinch 191 seats and remaining by far the biggest winner. The EPP garnered a few more seats, but the parliament is also expanding from 705 seats in 2019 to 720 seats this year, so the increase was marginal. The second-biggest bloc, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats, lost some seats but have 135 seats so far.
After the early results were announced, von der Leyen began trying to piece together a coalition on Monday by calling on the socialists and pro-business liberals to work together in a pro-European alliance. A rightward shift inside the European Parliament may make it tougher to pass new legislation to respond to security challenges, the impact of climate change or industrial competition from China and the United States.
To secure a second five-year term, von der Leyen needs the support of a majority of the EU's national leaders and a working majority in the European Parliament. She is expected to reach out to the Greens, who suffered heavy losses, and may also work with Italian PM Meloni, with whom she had worked closely.
Setback for Greens and Liberals
The biggest losers of the EU elections were the environmentalist Greens, who are expected to lose 20 seats in the EU parliament, almost a third of their tally from 2019. A series of protests across Europe by farmers angered at the burden imposed by new climate laws helped to damage their chances. The EU has positioned itself as a world leader in combating global warming.
Senior members had hoped that Greens parties already in government in places like Germany would hold their ground, but projections suggested that Germany’s Greens, the second-biggest party in Scholz’s coalition, would fall from a peak of 20.5 per cent five years ago to around 12 per cent. Liberal parties across Europe, including Macron’s, were also expected to give away a combined 20 seats in the assembly, making them the other biggest losers in this election.
However, Spain's centrist parties contained a far-right surge in Sunday's European Parliament elections as the centre-right People's Party (PP) and Sanchez's Socialists (PSOE) gained two-thirds of the vote, winning a combined 42 of the available 61 seats. Bulgaria's centre-right GERB party led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is also leading but needs two partners for a governing coalition. However, the Swedish populist party with far-right roots, Sweden Democrats, suffered a setback with only 13 per cent of the vote.
What happens now?
Senior party officials and number-crunchers are meeting Monday to work out what kind of groups and alliances might be formed in the parliament for the next five years. Party presidents will hold their first formal talks on June 17. The EU assembly will also need to approve the next president of the European Commission - most likely incumbent Ursula von der Leyen for a second term - and their 26 other commissioners.
One thing is clear: The results will slow decision-making and the passing of legislation on issues ranging from climate change to farm subsidies. The next five years will be crucial for determining whether Europe achieves its 2030 climate change targets. The EU's principal role in EU trade policy is to approve free trade agreements before they can enter force. The EU needs to reform its internal agriculture policy and the way it supports its members to equalise standards of living before it admits new countries like Ukraine.
(with inputs from agencies)
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