New Delhi: Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have engaged in increasingly provocative cross-border brawls for almost a year. As of two weeks ago, the Israeli military did not worry about troubling Iran-backed militia groups in Lebanon, but the recent attacks carried out by Israel raised grave concerns over the future of the Middle East.
In fact, the latest attack of Israel on Yemen has now widened the devastating scenario closer to a reality. In Lebanon, a flurry of pager and other communication devices explosions, the killing of top commanders including the Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the deaths of more than 600 civilians have cast a shadow of catastrophic war.
Israel airstrikes on Yemen
Amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Israeli military, killed at least four people and wounded 29 on Monday, the Houthi-run Health Ministry said in a statement, and residents said the bombing had caused power outages in most parts of the port city of Hodeidah. Israel's military said in a statement that dozens of aircraft, including fighter jets, had attacked power plants and a seaport in Hodeidah and the port of Ras Issa.
It was the second such Israeli attack on Yemen in just over two months. In July, Israeli warplanes struck Houthi military targets near Hodeidah after a Yemeni drone hit Tel Aviv and killed one man.
Yemen's Houthi militants, backed by Iran, have repeatedly fired missiles and drones at Israel in what they say is solidarity with Palestinians, since the Gaza war began with a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. In their latest attack, the Houthis said they had launched a ballistic missile on Saturday towards the Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, which Israel said it had intercepted. Israel intercepted another Houthi missile on Friday.
Is it possible for Israel, Lebanon, and Yemen to plunge into full-scale war?
In an analysis published in The Conversation by Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame, despite the ongoing scenarios and the rhetoric and mutual threats of destruction, neither Israel nor Hezbollah nor the latter’s sponsor Iran, have shown an interest in a full-scale war. All parties surely know the likely destructive consequences of such an eventuality for themselves:
According to the analyst, Israel has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon as it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could fire thousands of missiles at Israeli strategic sites, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and electricity hubs, and offshore gas rigs. So instead, they have exchanged fire and blows along their shared boundary, with somewhat agreed-upon red lines concerning the geographical scope of attacks and efforts not to intentionally target civilians.
Havoc in Lebanon
If Israel were involved in another conflict, such a war would wreak havoc in Lebanon and Israel, and might also drag Iran and the United States into direct confrontation. In doing so, it would also fulfil the apparent wishes of the Hamas gunmen who murdered around 1,200 Israelis on October 7 in the hope that a heavy-handed Israeli response would draw in more groups across the region.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah has dragged the country into this war against the will of most Lebanese-- a decision that has led to significant devastation in parts of a country already suffering extreme political and economic duress. Therefore, it is unlikely Israel would be involved in another round of war, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to eliminate Hezbollah.
Impact of the Middle East on the whole world
As countries in the Middle East were involved in the conflicts, there were speculations and concerns about the rise in crude oil prices. The concerns seem genuine as the soaring oil prices will definitely blow the already staggered economy of most of the European as well as Western countries.
Irrespective of market speculations, oil prices declined on Monday and were on track to fall for the third month in a row as a strong supply outlook and questions around demand outweighed fears that Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Yemen could escalate the conflict in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Monday, lost 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.32 a barrel as of 1140 GMT. The more active December contract fell 41 cents, 0.6%, to $71.13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures lost 51 cents, 0.8%, to $67.67 a barrel. Both benchmarks had earlier gained more than $1.
Brent was on track to lose more than 9% month-on-month, which would be its biggest decline since November 2022. WTI was set to decline almost 8% since the end of August. On Monday prices had been supported by the possibility that Iran, a key producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, may be directly drawn into a widening Middle East conflict.
Therefore, as of now, the impact remains the same as before Israel and Gaza announced a full-blown war.
(With inputs from agencies)
