New Delhi: The stage is now almost set for a Donald J Trump versus Hillary R Clinton clash in US Presidential elections slated to be held on November 8 this year.
Real-estate billionaire Donald Trump became ‘presumptive candidate’ of the Republican party after trouncing Ted Cruz in Indiana primaries held on May 4. On the same day, another Republican hopeful John Kasich suspended his campaign paving the way for Donald Trump to be formally declared the Republican candidate on June 7, the last day of Republican primaries.
Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state and wife of former US President Bill Clinton, is also way ahead of her nearest party rival Bernie Sanders and is almost certain to represent Democrats in Presidential elections.
The US is sharply divided over who should replace Barack Obama in white House. What is interesting is that there is no unanimity among senior Republican leaders over Donald Trump and some of them are extremely wary of his extreme line on certain issues especially his views on Muslims.
Even Paul Ryan, chairman of the Republican National Convention and the Speaker of US House of Representatives, has expressed his unwillingness to endorse the candidature of Donald Trump. However, the massive victory of Trump in US primaries clearly indicates that Trump has the confidence of grass root Republican workers.
The question is – who would be a better candidate from Indian perspective? Who would be more positively disposed towards India?
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Historically, a Democratic President, from the time of John F Kennedy, was considered more favourable towards India. It was President Bill Clinton, another Democrat, who initiated a strategic relationship with India that was taken forward by his successors George W Bush and Barack Obama.
As far as Republican Presidents are concerned, things changed for India during the reign of George W Bush when the two countries signed the historic Indo-US nuclear
So how would a Donald Trump presidency affect the Indo-US relationship?
Well, there are many factors that determine the closeness quotient between India and US but three specific areas largely decide the discourse of the relationship between two countries and these are – 1. Trade 2. Immigration and 3. US position on Indo-Pak as well as Sino-Indian disputes and rivalries.
As far as trade is concerned, Donald Trump is likely to adopt a hawkish approach but this will not be India specific. He has been insisting on following an ‘America first’ policy, which is similar to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘India First’ policy, if he wins the presidential elections. He is also opposed to American companies outsourcing jobs to overseas locations which are based out of countries like India and China.
Even on immigration, Donald Trump’s present stand of cutting down the influx to US from all across the world has raised the eyebrows of US based NRIs (Non-Resident Indians). His utterances have been taken with a pinch of salt by even those Indians who aspire to migrate to US for better career opportunities.
Obviously, on trade and immigration, Donald Trump’s stand, as on today, does not appear to be in favour of India. However, as we have seen in India, a politician is forced to change his hawkish position on matters that have international ramifications and there is a possibility of Trump mellowing down his extreme position on both these issues.
What would be the stand of Hillary Clinton on these two critical areas? Well, Hillary Clinton, in all probability, would continue the policies of Barack Obama. It means that there would be continuity in US policy on matters related to trade and immigration.
There are some experts who believe that on both trade and immigration, the policy of Trump administration towards India would depend on their relationship with China.
“On trade, a lot depends on how Trump administration works with China. Trump says he is a dealmaker and negotiator and if he makes a grand bargain with China then the story will be different. However, if Trump and China do not gel for various reasons then his policies will be more favourable for India. There could be hiccups on IPR(Intellectual Property Rights) and IT outsourcing but a lot depends on their relationship with China. Under Hillary, it will be business as usual,” Robinder Sachdev, founder president of The independent think-tank Imagindia Institute said.
“Even on immigration, Trump’s policy vis-a-vis India would depend on his relations with China. If it’s going bad then Trump will not push the immigration hot button for India. If the relationship between US and China are on upswing then a Trump administration will not mind pushing India hard on immigration, on H1 visa issue. Under Hillary, again it will be business as usual. She is likely to continue the policy of Barack Obama,” Sachdev added.
One major change that a Trump presidency may bring about is US position on the Indo-Pak and Sino-Indian rivalries.
Trump has made it very clear that he would adopt a tough stand vis-a-vis China. He has been using acerbic language against China throughout his campaign. Recently, he launched a scathing attack on China and said,” we can’t allow China to rape our country with trade deficits. It’s the greatest theft in the world.”
And it’s not only about trade. Trump is likely to adopt a tough stand on China in matters relating to regional security in Asia. The US for long considers India as a counterbalancing force to checkmate an increasingly assertive China and under Trump’s presidency the leanings towards India could become more tangible.
As far as Sino-Indian relations are concerned, US under Barack Obama also tilted towards India recently when Washington officially stated that it considers Arunachal Pradesh an integral part of India which was fiercely objected to by the Chinese. It means that even if Hillary Clinton, another Democrat, gets entry into White House, the US will continue to look upon India as a balancing force to China.
What will be the US stand on Indo-Pak conundrum under Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton? Well, the US stand, most probably, will have continuity on the complex relationship shared by India and Pakistan irrespective of who becomes the President.
And there are many reasons to believe that. There is a near unanimity in US that Pakistan has been cheating US on the so-called ‘war on terror’. The distrust became more evident when the US Congress refused to subsidise the sale of 8 F-16 fighters to Pakistan recently. The revelation on Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI’s alleged attempt to kill the CIA station chief in Pakistan in the wake of the elimination of Osama Bin Laden in Abottabad has further added to the trust deficit between the two countries. In US, there is a bipartisan consensus now that a democratic India would be a better strategic partner compared to Pakistan.
That Trump would be tough on Pakistan is almost certain but one can’t overlook the fact that even Hillary Clinton had publically rebuked Pakistan for providing shelter to terrorists. During one of her visits to Pakistan, she had clearly reminded them that they should think that the snakes they were feeding in their backyard will not bite them. The message was terse, loud and clear and for all practical purposes, both Trump and Hillary are almost on the same page on this matter.
Former diplomat N N Jha believes that the reports of Chinese funding of Hillary’s election campaign has to be taken in to account although he is of the opinion that people change once they come to power because of many compulsions.
“The problem with Hillary is that there have been allegations of Chinese funding in her election campaign. If that is true then we have to take care of that as well. But if she comes to power, she will have to think of everybody. People change after coming to power,” says N N Jha, the retired IFS officer.
Jha, however, believes that Hillary Clinton seems to be better- disposed towards India.
“On trade and immigration, Hillary Clinton will be more favourable to India. As far as security is concerned, no President can overlook the prevailing anti-Pakistan sentiment in America including the US Congress. Both Trump and Clinton will have to go with the existing ground realities. Overall, Hillary Clinton seems to be better-disposed towards India,” Jha added.
Therefore, a closer analysis makes it clear that a Trump presidency may result in a little bit of tough talk on trade and immigration but the overall strategic relationship between the two countries may offset these irritants. A Hillary Presidency, on the other hand, will take the existing relationship forward without too much of experimentation.
This is one reason why experts like N N Jha believe that Hillary Clinton will prove to be a better US President from Indian perspective. However, from a military and foreign policy perspective, Trump may prove to be more positively disposed towards India.
