Skymet predicts winter conditions after November 25
Back-to-back western disturbances around November 25 are likely to see the winters strengthen, and minimum temperatures are likely to drop, according to Skymet Weather forecast.
According to an update by Skymet Weather, good amounts of rain and snowfall in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand can be attributed to back-to-back Western disturbances.
The two systems had already given widespread rain and snowfall on November 6 and later on November 11 and 12. This trend is likely to continue as the weather models are showing more such developments, that too in quick successions, Skymet said.
One of these Western Disturbances would approach the western Himalayas between November 20 and 22. This system would bring good rain and snowfall in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, including the Union Territory of Ladakh. The state of Uttarakhand too would observe good showers during this span.
This system would fade away by November 23, however, its remnants would continue to give rain. By the time its remnants get weak, another Western Disturbance would approach the region around November 25, which would further trigger rain and snowfall activities, according to Skymet Weather.
The forecast said that this system would certainly be stronger than the former in terms of spread and intensity. It would bring widespread rain and snowfall, covering almost all the places in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh right from Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Srinagar to Kullu, Manali, Lahaul and Spiti from November 25 to 27. The Union Territory of Ladakh would also witness these activities. There are chances of snowfall in the upper reaches of Uttarakhand as well during this time.
The system would also impact the neighbouring plains to some extent. "As the snow paints hilly states white, the winters would strengthen and winter chill would give shivers. After the passage of Western Disturbances, minimum temperatures would drop significantly leading to cold-day conditions", Skymet Weather said.
IMD has also predicted western disturbances observed over Afghanistan which are causing rain and snowfall in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue the minimum winter temperature and cold wave outlook by the end of November.
According to IMD, under the influence of fresh Western Disturbance and induced cyclonic circulation, above normal rainfall is very likely this week over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan.
However, the temperatures may not dip just yet, IMD said. The minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal by 1-3°C over northwest & adjoining central India and northeastern states.
