West Bengal opinion poll: Mamata or Modi, who has the edge? | Big takeaways

Bharatiya Janata Party (TMC) or Trinamool Congress (TMC), who will win Bengal in 2021 as the 8-phased assembly election is all set to begin March 27. Will Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress be able to form the government in the state for the third consecutive time or whether it will be the BJP that will once again change the political dynamics of the state. To win Bengal, BJP has infused all the horsepower in the state with PM Modi, Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh, others campaigning for the party while the TMC is relying on its 10-year work card and Mamata's face, but what is the mood of the people? Well, ahead of elections, several opinion polls have been conducted to determine which way the voters swing, so let's take a look at which party may have the edge in one of the most intense, high stakes assembly elections going to be held this year.

West Bengal Maha Opinion Poll | Big takeaways

The Bengal Legislative Assembly comprises 294 seats. A party or an alliance will have to secure at least 147 seats to reach the half-way mark to be able to form the government.

Peoples Pulse Opinion Poll 

According to the People Pulse opinion poll, BJP will be able to form the government in Bengal with a comfortable majority. People Pulse opinion poll has predicted 183 seats for the BJP, while only 95 seats to the TMC and only 16 seats for the Left alliance. Peoples Pulse Opinion Poll was conducted in December 2020. A look at what region-wise survey by Peoples Pulse opinion poll. 

SOUTH BENGAL | 126 SEATS

According to the Peoples Pulse Opinion Poll, the BJP is projected to win 76 seats while the TMC will get 48 seats. The Congress-led alliance will settle with 2 seats. The South Bengal area comprises Kolkata, Hooghly, Howrah, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas and Purba Medinipur.

GREATER MALDA | 49 seats

TMC is likely to win 23 seats while 14 seats may go to BJP. The Congress-led alliance is projected to win 12 seats. This region comprises Malda, Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur and Dakshin Dinajpur.

The region has a strong dominance of Muslim population. The BJP clearly appears to be struggling in the region, on the other hand, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is likely to keep its Muslim vote bank intact. 

CENTRAL BENGAL | 49 seats

According to the Peoples Pulse Opinion Poll, the BJP is projected to win 34 seats while the TMC is likely to get 14 seats. The Congress-led alliance will get just one seat. The region comprises Birbhum, Nadia, Paschim Bardhaman and Purba Bardhaman. Central Bengal is one such region in the state where polarisation is likely to have a big impact on election results. 

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JANGALMAHAL | 42 seats

The BJP is likely to win 35 seats in the region while Mamata Banerjee's TMC is projected to secure just 7 seats. Once a hub of Maoist activities, the region has swung from the Left to Trinamool Congress and in 2019 general elections to the BJP. This region comprises Bankura, Purulia, West Midnapore and Jhargram.

NORTH BENGAL | 28 Seats

BJP is likely to win 24 seats while TMC may get only 3 seats and the Congress-led alliance 1 seat. North Bengal region includes Darjeeling, Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Kalimpong and Jalpaiguri.

CNX Opinion Poll

According to the CNX opinion poll, its an entirely different picture as it predicts a hung assembly in Bengal. CNX opinion poll shows both BJP and TMC may fall short of the absolute majority.

According to the CNX Opinion poll released on March 23, the BJP is likely to win 135 seats while the TMC may bag 141 seats. The Left, Congress alliance is likely to win 16 seats.

In the CNX opinion poll released on March 8, the saffron party is likely to win 107 seats. The TMC may get 159 seats and the Congress-led alliance 26 seats.

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The CNX opinion poll released on February 15 predicted that the BJP may get 117 seats while the TMC may pocket 151 seats. The Congress-led alliance is predicted to win 24 seats.

C-Voter Opinion Poll

C-Voter opinion poll predicts an edge for the TMC, predicting 160 seats for the party while only 112 seats for the BJP. The Left alliance may settle around with 22.

Therefore, a consolidated picture out from the 3 opinion polls predicts that BJP is likely to have an edge in the elections but may fall short of the absolute majority. According to the Maha Opinion Poll, BJP may get 143 seats, TMC may bag around 132 seats and Left alliance may have to settle down with just 19 seats.

Though all the 3 opinion polls have predicted different figures but one key takeaway which is emerging is that the Bharatiya Janata Party will make a big gain in West Bengal.

Bengal Elections 2021 schedule

West Bengal assembly elections will be held in 8 phases, beginning March 27, April 1, April 6, April 10, April 17, April 22, April 26 and the last phase on April 29. Results will be declared on May 2.