Election strategist-turned-political activist Prashant Kishor has predicted a 'massive' edge of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA in this year's Lok Sabha elections, but he added a rider: "Two months is a long time in politics".
Replying to questions in Rajat Sharma's iconic show 'Aap Ki Adalat', Prashant Kishor said: "I normally do not make predictions about who will get how many seats, but my estimate till now is that the BJP-led NDA has a massive advantage over any Opposition combination, but two months is a long time in politics...If elections are held now, I think, NDA and BJP have a very big lead over others."
ONE-TO-ONE CONTEST IDEA IS IRRELEVANT
Explaining his assessment, Prashant Kishor said: "All this talk about one-to-one fight is irrelevant. There are already 300 LS seats where there is one candidate from the Opposition against BJP. They (the Opposition) should improve their strike rate. In states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, BJP is in direct fight against Congress for nearly 250 seats. In 100 other seats, regional parties like TMC, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP are in direct fight against BJP. In all these 350 seats, the strike rate of Opposition is in single digit. It does not matter if you field one candidate or two. If you focus on 350 seats and win 125 to 150 seats, they (opposition) can show BJP the way out."
Asked about the strength of Modi and BJP in the LS elections, the political strategist outlined four reasons: One: Hindutva ideology that has spread among voters, two: Modi projecting India as a big power and his stress on 'new nationalism', three: direct delivery model for beneficiaries like jandhan, toilets, LPG gas, drinking water, farmers, and four: organizational muscle and financial strength.
He said: "Let them (Opposition) concentrate on three out of the four points . You have to counter Hindutva, you have to bring a better narrative than nationalism, you have to bring a better model than this beneficiaries model, and if you cannot match BJP's electoral muscle, you have to make something better in comparison."
RULES OUT EVM MANIPULATION
Prashant Kishor ruled out any possibility of manipulation in electronic voting machines. He, however, suggested that the Election Commission should digitally upload Forms 19 and 20 from each polling booth on its website.
The election strategist said: "I normally do not comment on matters in which I do not have expertise. Even if we leave out technical matters, operationally on a scale of such a huge manpower involved in 10 lakh EVMs, and that too, in states where there are non-BJP governments, there is little possibility of the word not spreading out if EVMs are manipulated."
"Secondly, there have been no cases where the surveys show 40 pc votes going to Congress and the results show 20 per cent. Even normal scientific surveys whether right or wrong, do not say that Congress or INDIA alliance has a big lead. I am talking about all surveys put together and you take out the mean average. Rather, in the last ten years, most of the results that were different from the surveys, went against the BJP. So, I don't think this (manipulation) is possible. And even if you accept that it happened, what is the alternative? You (Opposition) are unable to mobilize a movement against EVMs. Only making statements in media won't do."
Prashant Kishor said: " I have written to the Election Commission to upload Form 19 which is signed by agents of all candidates after polling is over in a booth and before the EVMs are sealed, and also Form 20, which are uploaded by EC after counting. For some strange reason, Form 19 is no more being uploaded. If EC uploads both Form 19 and 20, this controversy will end to some extent."
MISUSE OF ED, CBI
On the Opposition's charge that the BJP government is misusing Enforcement Directorate and CBI to harass its leaders, Prashant Kishor replied: "Use/misuse of agencies took place even during Indira Ji's rule. The extent could vary. If you are a BJP supporter, you will say, misuse of agencies is now lesser. If you are a Congress supporter, you will say the opposite. The common people has no problem with this. The problem arises when people see that a leader who was being probed, joins the BJP camp and the probe stops. This is not consistent with what Modiji claims. Agencies used to be used/misused in the past and the same is happening now too."
RAHUL GANDHI HAS 'NERVES OF STEEL'
While doing a relative comparison of the personality traits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, Prashant Kishor had words of praise for Modi and at the same time, he remarked that "Rahul Gandhi has a temperament which surprises me. He has nerves of steel, because even after losing 90 per cent of elections in the last 10 years, he is still positive and he is convinced that he is on the right path."
The political strategist said: "The traits of Modi and Rahul are inherently different. Rahul has a different pedigree and Modi's background is different. In his 45 years of experience, first for 15 years as RSS pracharak, then for 15 years as a BJP organizer, and for the last 15 years as chief minister and Prime Minister, he has a rich and varied experience because of his close connect with the people....Modiji's strength is not that he is a big orator, his strength is not that all the Hindutva forces are supporting him, his main strength is his varied experience mix of the last 45 years. There are few leaders in the country who have such diverse experience. Journalists say that Modiji literally does second guess about what people want to hear. Some people say this is all because of TV ads, overhyped publicity or that the media is under his control. But you cannot counter somebody unless you assess his strength. Unless you assess him, how can you defeat him?"
In the 'Aap Ki Adalat' show, Prashant Kishor narrated his relationship with Prime Minister Modi before the 2014 Lok Sabha election, how he helped Nitish Kumar in allying with RJD to defeat BJP in 2015 Bihar assembly election, and he helped Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee win the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections.
Prashant Kishor described Aam Aadmi Party as "a one-man show which lacks institutional mechanism and ideological roots". Kishor ruled out any possibility of returning to electoral strategizing for any political party, and said he was working to promote his own political outfit Jan Suraaj Abhiyan in Bihar.
