In euphoria over the historic comeback of Donald Trump as 47th President of the United States, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after posting his congratulatory tweet to "my dear friend", telephoned to greet him on his victory. During the conversation, Donald Trump, according to sources, repeatedly described India as a "magnificent country" and Modi as "a magnificent leader whom much of the world loves". Trump described the conversation as among the first he had with a head of government after his victory. The question is: what will be the implications on India and her neighbours after a regime change in the White House? Will the Modi-Trump personal chemistry work towards strengthening bilateral relations? Trump is known as a hard bargainer and a sharp businessman. Will it affect India-US trade ties? Trump is a hawk on the issue of immigrant policies. Will it make U.S. visa rules tougher?
Trump's victory vis-a-vis India can be seen from two angles:
One, is his friendship with Narendra Modi. Both know each other very well. Trump follows a personalized style in diplomacy and on many occasions, he has described Modi as his friend and a strong leader. This is going to benefit India. Two, India's diplomacy requirements. China has been posing a challenge to India in the last one decade, and Trump's friendship with Modi will have its effect here too. Justin Trudeau in Canada has become a headache for India because of his overt support to Khalistani separatists and the outgoing Biden administration had been extending support to Trudeau. These equations are going to change and India will emerge stronger.
BANGLADESH
Trump's recent statement about atrocities being perpetrated on Hindus in Bangladesh has been widely welcomed in India. On Diwali Festival (October 31), five days before voting, Trump wrote on X: "I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians and other minorities, who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America....We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom...". No American President in the last two centuries had ever said that he was a true friend of Hindus in the White House. The impact will surely be seen. Trump's victory will affect both Pakistan and Bangladesh. Already, there are some straws in the wind. Deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, staying in exile in India, sent a message of congratulation, as head of Awami League, to Donald Trump, in which she said, she was willing to work with him for improving bilateral relations. The present interim government in Bangladesh is headed by economist Mohammed Yunus, considered to be close to the Clinton family. There are reports that Sheikh Hasina's government was deposed by him with help from Biden administration.
PAKISTAN
As far as Pakistan is concerned, jailed former PM Imran Khan's supporters are ecstatic over Trump's victory and are already celebrating. They are optimistic about Imran's early release from jail after pressure from Trump administration. But one must remember, it was Trump who, with Imran Khan sitting by his side, had said, Pakistan was sheltering terrorists and he would finish off their bases. It was Trump who had put a brake on 24 billion US dollars in assistance to Pakistan.
CHINA
India's third and biggest neighbour China is already worried after Trump's win. During his earlier tenure, Trump had unleashed a trade war against China, and imposed heavy tariff on Chinese goods. He had toughened scrutiny of most of the Chinese companies, and this had affected US-China business. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, "we respect the choice of the American people...China will work with the US on the basis of mutual respect".
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST
European leaders have adopted a line of caution after Trump's win, given his known stand that European countries must bear their security costs themselves. Trump's win will have immediate repercussions on the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, in which the US have been providing finance and military aid to Ukraine. The strategic equations in Europe may undergo a reset. The Kremlin has said, "let's see" if Trump's win can end the Ukraine war. On Iran, Trump has always followed a tough policy. He had exited from US nuclear deal with Tehran. This time conflicts are going on in Gaza and Lebanon and Trump's policies will be interesting to note. One must bear in mind what External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said about war. Jaishankar said, he does not think the US would like to be part of any war now. The reverse will be the case and Trump may chose to withdraw US troops and armaments from most of the conflict zones. Jaishankar has said that this withdrawal from conflict zones had already begun since the time Barack Obama was president. Joe Biden withdrew US troops from Afghanistan, and Trump has already said that US will not join any war.
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