New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department on Friday predicted normal rainfall during the monsoon season. However, there are less chances for it to arrive before June 1. The weather agency has predicted the monsoon to arrive in Kerala around June 4.
"Once the monsoon is stronger established, we are expecting the monsoon to arrive in Kerala around 4th June. Before 1st June, we are not expecting the monsoon to arrive. The monsoon is most likely to be normal this year," the IMD said.
"There is no cyclone probability in the Arabian sea for next week. If rainfall distribution is almost similar everywhere, then it will be an ideal situation. There won't be any problem. If we get equal distribution everywhere, there won't be much impact on agriculture. In northwest India, as of now, below-normal rainfall will be there," the weather office said.
India to receive 96% rainfall
According to the IMD, India as a whole was expected to receive 96 per cent of the normal rainfall. The northwestern part of the country is likely to remain slightly deficient in rains with monsoon bringing in less than 92 per cent of the normal, the IMD said. “Southwest monsoon season from June to September over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal i.e. 96 to 104 per cent of Long period average (LPA),” the IMD said.
As per regions, IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall in Northwest India i.e. less than 92 per cent of LPA whereas normal rainfall has been predicted in Northeast India, Central India and South Peninsular India.
It also added that the Monsoon core zone which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country will most likely see normal monsoon i.e. 94-106 per cent of LPA.
About rainfall in June
About June rainfall predictions, IMD said that average rainfall over the country in this month is most likely to be below normal. It added that some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated of northeast India could likely see above-normal rainfall.
June was also likely to be warmer than normal. IMD said both the maximum and minimum temperatures in June was likely to be higher than normal. “In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for the extreme north and some parts of the southern peninsular India, where below-normal and normal temperatures respectively are likely,” the weather agency said.
90% probability El Nino
The IMD said there was now more than a 90 per cent probability of El Nino developing within the monsoon season. El Nino, an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has the effect of suppressing monsoon rainfall. But a part of this impact could be offset this year by a positive Indian Ocean dipole, a similar phenomenon in the Indian Ocean region that is also likely to develop, the IMD said.
