The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country will witness normal rains during the upcoming monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.
IMD forecast has come just days after a private forecasting agency, Skymet Weather, predicted "below-normal" monsoon rains in the country.
A good monsoon is a crucial factor for the Indian agriculture industry as 52 percent of the net cultivated area relies on this method.
What is El Nino?
El Nino, which is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India.
"India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm," M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a press conference.
There is a 67 per cent probability of normal to above normal rainfall, said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
Starting 2019, India has already seen four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season.
Mohapatra said normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northwest India, west-central and northeast regions during the southwest monsoon season.
"Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, northeast areas and some parts of northwest India," he said.
The Met department head said El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be felt in the second half.
Mohapatra, however, added that not all El Nino years are bad monsoon years and that 40 per cent of the El Nino years in the past (1951-2022) received normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall.
(With inputs from PTI)
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