Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is focussing on winning more seats in southern states in this Lok Sabha elections than it ever won in the past. The saffron camp, which aims to cross the 400-plus mark, is already at the peak of its performance in several north India states including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh. In order to increase its tally and reach 400-mark, the party is aiming to gain more seats in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and north-east states.
But apart from focusing on the above-mentioned states, the party formulated an aggressive strategy to focus more on the south as it sees a bigger scope of winning extra seats than in north, east or central India. Also, since the BJP is already at its peak in various north Indian states, the strategy to focus on the south also makes sense in order to cover up seats if it loses some in states where it has already peaked.
However, not just to cover up but if the BJP really wants to achieve the 400-plus target, winning more seats in south India is the only way forward and this is the reason why we have witnessed more rallies, public addresses and roadshows by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other star campaigners from the BJP, campaigning in the south.
States where the BJP was seen campaigning aggressively were Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
If we look at the numbers, there are 132 Lok Sabha seats in the south. However, there are 91 seats out of 132 that the BJP never won in its electoral history. Out of 91 seats which the saffron camp never won, 35 are in Tamil Nadu, 20 each in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, 11 in Telangana, 3 in Karnataka, and 1 each in Puducherry and Lakshadweep. So according to this data, there is a wider scope for the BJP to gain more seats in south India than in north and east.
Tamil Nadu has a total of 39 seats but the BJP never won 35 of them, therefore in the future, if the party continues to gain ground in the southernmost state, it has the opportunity to add 35 more seats. Similarly in Kerala, the saffron camp has never won even a single seat. Although the region is dominated by the Left and Congress, the BJP can still hope to do its magic.
In Telangana, where the BJP has more presence than in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it's not going to be a herculean task for them to gain more ground here. Whereas in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has tied with Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party (JSP). In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the vote share of BJP in Andhra was just 0.98. Therefore, with TDP which had 40.19 per cent and JSP 5.87 per cent vote share in 2019, there are good chances for the NDA.
Whereas in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the party received considerably higher votes -- 3.66 per cent and 12.93 per cent.
The BJP has never won in Puducherry and Lakshadweep, therefore, the party has scope for two more seats to add to its kitty. One state where the BJP has the maximum presence in the south is Karnataka. Here, there are only three seats which the party has never won.
Overall, the Bharatiya Janata Party, banking upon its dominance in northern states and using its election machinery for which it is known, has a good scope to gain more seats in the south. Below is the list of seats which the BJP has won in southern states at some point in time.
- Tamil Nadu: Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Tiruchirappalli.
- Telangana: Secunderabad, Nizamabad, Adilabad, Karimnagar, Medak and Mahabubnagar.
- Andhra Pradesh: Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Rajahmundry, Narasapuram and Tirupati.
- Andaman and Nicober Islands
- Kerala, Lakshadweep, Puducherry: Never
- Karnataka: Barring Hassan, Mandya and Bangalore Rural, the BJP has won the remaining 25 seats in this state at some point in time.
Aiming 400-plus target, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held roadshows or rallies in Chennai, Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, Palakkad in Kerala, Sultanpur, Jagtial in Telangana, Rajampet in Andhra Pradesh, and Shivamogga in Karnataka, among other places.
Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry, have already concluded.
