A worst case scenario would have Phailin tracking slightly eastward of its current forecasted track, toward Kolkata and the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh, which is home to tens of millions of people living just a few meters above sea level.
Storm surge and freshwater flooding from heavy rains are generally the biggest threats from landfalling cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region, home to the most deadly storms in modern history.
Two reasons why Phailin may pack a particularly hefty punch: an ample finish to the 2013 monsoon season has saturated soils along India's coastline, aggravating Phailin's flooding potential. Plus, a forthcoming ‘eyewall replacement cycle' could act to further grow Phailin's size and extent of storm surge damage.
In the absence of direct measurements, meteorologists use satellites to estimate the strength of storms like Phailin.
One reliable technique shows Phailin is continuing to strengthen and may have already achieved the status of a “super cyclone,” the highest on India's scale and the equivalent of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
