That forecast may, in fact, be conservative. Waters over the Bay of Bengal are exceptionally warm right now—more than 28°C, which is the generally agreed upon threshold above which rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is most likely.
The last storm of this magnitude to hit India was the 1999 Odisha cyclone, which killed more than 10,000 people and caused $4.5 billion in damage.
That storm hit the same general area that Phailin appears to be headed, at about Phailin's predicted strength.
India's official meteorological service has had trouble keeping up with the quickly strengthening storm.
