The next year’s Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra is set to be a neck to neck contest with the predictions of seats swinging from one corner to the other with the nearing general elections. The BJP is still predicted to win most number of seats in the state in 2024, as per the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll conducted on Friday (October 6).
In the latest Opinion Poll, the BJP is predicted to win 22 seats while Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) is shown to win 4 seats. Ajit Pawar’s NCP is slated to bag 2 seats next year. The NDA’s tally, therefore, is likely to touch 28 mark out of the total 48 seats.
The Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A, on the other hand, is predicted to win 20 seats in total, out of which Congress’ share is likely to be 9 seats, while Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar’s group) are predicted to win 8 and 3 seats respectively.
In terms of vote percentage, as per the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, BJP is expected to get 32% of votes in Maharashtra, alliance partners Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and NCP (Ajit Pawar) to get 10% and 5% of votes respectively.
The NDA is likely to get 47% of votes in Maharashtra in 2024 Lok Sabha polls., whereas Congress is expected to get 15% of votes in Maharashtra.
The Congress’ alliance partners Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are predicted to get 15% and 12% of votes respectively.
Congress-led alliance is expected to get 42% of votes in Maharashtra.
What did previous India TV Opinion Poll predict?
In the previous Opinion Poll conducted by India TV in July this year after Ajit Pawar parted ways with Sharad Pawar, the NDA which comprises of BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar group) was predicted to lose some seats in the 2024 polls, than what it (BJP and undivided Shiv Sena) won in 2019.
The undivided NDA (BJPand Shiv Sena) had secured 41 seats out of 48 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
In the Opinion Poll in July, the BJP was predicted to win 20 seats next year, suffering a loss of 3, while its ally Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde was predicted to win only 2 seats as against its rival faction led by Uddhav Thackeray which was shown to grab 11 seats in 2024.
The earlier poll showed that the loyal voters of Shiv Sena were undeterred by the split in the party and were likely to back Uddhav Thackeray.
Congress, in the July poll, was predicted to take a significant leap from its 2019 tally and shown to win 9 seats next year.
Background
In 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena had contested the elections together as NDA and secured 41 out of 48 seats, riding on the Modi factor which was prevalent last time. The BJP won 23 while Shiv Sena emerged victorious on 18 seats.
The Opposition parties including NCP, Congress, AIMIM, and Independent were crushed as they won only 7 seats together. NCP had bagged 4, and Congress, AIMIM and Independent had won 1 seat each.
However, with new alliances formed since the 2019 general elections in Maharashtra, the number game has become closer for the parties.
Ever since the MVA came into existence in 2019 after the Maharashtra Assembly polls and the recent NCP split necessitated by Ajit Pawar’s exit from the Opposition ranks, the next year’s polls are expected to be a close game.
Opinion Poll prediction in Goa
As per India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, the BJP is expected to win both Lok Sabha seats in Goa.
The BJP is expected to get 56% of votes in Goa, Congress is likely to get 35% of votes. The saffron party had won one seat in Goa in 2019 while the other was won by Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party which also fought the polls last time could not open its account.
