Expect normal monsoon rains this season. This is the forecast by the top weatherman for the country which faced an unprecedented drought last year. "The long range forecast for the 2010 south-west monsoon season is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be normal," Ajit Tyagi, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) told reporters here. He said the country is expected to receive 98 per cent rains of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 89 cm. LPA is the mean rainfall between 1941 and 1990. Interestingly, IMD today changed the nomenclature of the forecast by declaring 98 per cent rains as 'normal'. Earlier, 96 per cent to 104 per cent rains were catergorised as 'near normal'. The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheer to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year due to failed monsoon.
"Quantitatively, the monsoon season's rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent with a model error of plus/minus five per cent," Tyagi said.
A good monsoon could help sowing of rice, sugarcane, soybean and corn, and lead to a rebound in the agricultural output.
Tyagi also announced that the IMD will issue fortnightly outlook on weather for every meteorological sub-division which could aid farmers as they go about their agricultural activities. The weather office has also decided to issue monthly forecasts on monsoon behaviour from this year as against only one prediction during the season.
Last month, Geneva-based World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said El Nino had peaked, but was expected to influence climate patterns up to mid-year before dying out.
El Nino, a key parameter in monsoon prediction, is an occasional seasonal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that upsets normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to east Africa.
"El Nino is now on a declining phase, so we think that this year monsoon is going to be normal," Tyagi said.
However, while preparing the forecast weather scientists have factored in the El Nino conditions. If these conditions persist, rainfall could be on the lower side of normal.
"The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate high probability for the present El Nino conditions to maintain till early part of the monsoon season and then weaken to become near neutral during the subsequent months," IMD officials said.
Scientists have also cautioned that El Nino forecasts made in April have "considerable uncertainty".
The IMD had taken into account several domestic and international forecasts while preparing its predictions of the monsoon rains.
Tyagi said there was "convergence" in the IMD's forecast and those of the other institutions. PTI
