Desh Ki Awaaz survey: Bharatiya Janata Party may return to power in Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh and retain power in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, according to assembly seat projection made by India TV-Matrize opinion poll, results of which were telecast on the news channel today(Saturday, July 30).
On the other hand, the ruling Trinamool Congress may retain power in West Bengal with a reduced majority, while TRS and Aam Aadmi Party may continue to remain in power in Telangana and Punjab respectively if elections are held now, says the opinion poll.
Following are the details of the opinion poll from different states:
RAJASTHAN
In the 200-seat Rajasthan assembly, if elections are held now, BJP may win 148 seats, Congress may win 42 seats, and ‘Others’ including independents may win 10 seats, according to the opinion poll. In the 2018 elections, BJP had won 73, Congress had won 99 and Others had won 28 seats. Voting percentage: BJP 52 pc, Congress 31 pc and Others 17 pc if elections held now. The assembly elections are scheduled next year.
Asked about favourite choice for CM, Ashok Gehlot leads with 27 pc, BJP leader Vasundhara Raje comes second with 22 pc, and Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat with 19 pc. Congress leader Sachin Pilot got 11 pc support from respondents. The biggest electoral issue among respondents was: (1) the government’s performance 31 pc and (2)Narendra Modi factor 26 pc. (3) MLA’s work 14 pc and (4) Communal polarization 12 pc.
Asked about the effects of Kanhaiyalal’s beheading in Udaipur, 69 pc said ‘yes’ and 23 pc said ‘no. Asked which party would they prefer to form govt next year, 57 pc said BJP while 27 pc said Congress. Asked in whose name will you cast your vote, 42 per cent said, “in Modi’s name”. Only 28 pc said “in Ashok Gehlot’s name”.
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GUJARAT
In the 182-seat Gujarat assembly, BJP is going to retain power by winning 108 seats, Congress may win 55 seats, AAP may win eight seats and Others including independents may win 11 seats. In the 2017 assembly elections, BJP had won 99 seats, Congress had won 77 seats, and Other six seats. The assembly elections are due in December this year. Voting percentage shown in survey is BJP 48 pc, Congress 33 pc and AAP 16 pc.
Asked whether BJP should project a CM candidate before the elections, 38 per cent said ‘No’, 36 per cent said ‘BJP should declare a new face’, and 22 per cent said “the present CM”. Asked in whose name will you cast your vote, 33 per cent said “for Modi”, 24 pc said “for the candidate with the best image”. Asked about the best face for CM, only 22 pc said Bhupendra Patel, the present CM, 16 pc opted for BJP leader Purushottam Rupala, 9 pc for Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil, and a whopping 69 per cent said “any other face”.
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MADHYA PRADESH
In the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly, BJP is set to retain power winning 119 seats, while Congress may win 98 seats and Others 13 seats. In the 2018 elections, BJP had won 109 seats, Congress had won 114 and Others had won seven seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 44 per cent and Congress 41 pc. Asked about their first choice for CM candidate, 38 per cent preferred the current CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, while 31 pc opted for Congress leader Kamal Nath.
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CHHATTISGARH
In the 90-seat Chhattisgarh assembly BJP is projected to win 48 seats, while the ruling Congress party may win 40 seats. Others may win only 2 seats. In the 2018 elections, Congress had won 68, BJP had won 15 and Others had won 7 seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll: Congress 40 pc and BJP 43 pc.
38 per cent respondents said they would vote in the name of Modi, while 22 pc opted for Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. Among the choices for CM, 29 pc said they would support State BJP chief Vishnudeo Sai, 24 pc opted for Bhupesh Baghel and 14 pc for ex-CM Raman Singh.
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MAHARASHTRA
In the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly, BJP may emerge as the largest party again with 134 seats, while its ally Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may win 41 seats, meaning that the alliance can win a comfortable majority. NCP may win 44 seats, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena may win 18 seats, Congress may win 38 seats and Others 13. Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 34.1 pc, NCP 19.6 pc, Congress 16.1 pc, Shinde Shiv Sena 12.6 pc and Uddhav Shiv Sena 9.1 pc. Assembly polls are due in 2024.
Who will be the best face for CM? 38.4 pc opted for Devendra Fadnavis, 11.3 pc for Eknath Shinde, 9.2 pc for Sharad Pawar, 8.6 pc for Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan and 8.1 pc for Uddhav Thackeray.
52 per cent said they wanted to see BJP-Eknath Shiv Sena govt again in 2024, while 32 pc opted for Congress-NCP government. 52 per cent said, they will vote “in the name of Modi’, while 32 pc said they will vote “in the name of Sharad Pawar”. 56 pc said Uddhav-led party is the real Shiv Sena, while 44 pc said Eknath-led party is the real Shiv Sena.
PUNJAB
If elections are held now in Punjab, Aam Aadmi Party may retain power but with a reduced majority. In the 117-seat assembly, AAP may win 72 seats, BJP 16 seats, Akali Dal 11 seats, Congress 9 and other nine seats. In this year’s assembly polls, AAP had won 92 seats, Congress 18, Akali Dal 3, BJP 2, and Others 2 seats.
Asked whether you want to change the present government, 46 per cent said ‘No’, 41 per cent said ‘Yes’. Asked how is AAP government’s performance, 32 pc said they were not happy, 31 pc said they were happy, 24 pc said, AAP did what they promised, 13 pc said, they made a mistake (galti ho gayi).
UTTAR PRADESH
In 403-seat UP assembly, if elections are held now, Yogi Adityanath-led BJP may win 292 seats, Samajwadi Party may win 94 seats, Congress one and Others 16 seats. In the assembly polls in March this year, BJP had won 255 seats, Samajwadi Party 111, Congress 1 , BSP 1 and Others 35. Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 44.6 pc and SP 31.3 pc.
Asked on which issue would you vote, 38 per cent said “because of Yogi’s popularity”, 26 pc said “sushasan and ration (good governance and ration)”. 56 per cent said “Double engine factor decides the vote” while 39 pc said, “Double engine factor does not decide the vote”.
BIHAR
In 243-seat Bihar assembly, if elections are held now, Rashtriya Janata Dal may get 83 seats and BJP may win 81 seats. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal(United) may win 38 seats and Congress may get 11 seats. LJP may win one seat. Others may win 29 seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll, RJD 26.3 per cent, BJP 23.6 pc, JD-U 13.6 pc, Congress 7.2 pc. Elections are due in 2025. In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD had won 75, BJP 74, JD-U 43, Congress 19 , LJP one and Others 31 seats.
Among the respondents, 39 per cent preferred Narendra Modi, 28 pc preferred Nitish Kumar, and 22 pc opted for Tejashwi Yadav. 45 per cent said they wanted a BJP-JD(U) combine in power, while 22 pc wanted a RJD-Congress combine.
TELANGANA
Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is set to retain power if assembly elections are held now. TRS may win 76 seats out of a total of 117 assembly seats. BJP may win 21 and Congress may win 12 seats . Owaisi’s AIMIM may win seven seats and Others one. Voting percentage in opinion poll: TRS 42 pc, BJP 28 pc, Congress 23 pc.
36 per cent of respondents said they would vote for KCR’s performance, while 22 pc said they would support Modi. Among CM faces, 41.8 per cent support K. Chandrashekhar Rao, 26.8 pc supported Congress leader Uttam Kumar Reddy, and 21.6 pc supported BJP leader B. Sanjay Kumar.
HIMACHAL PRADESH
BJP may retain power in Himachal Pradesh which goes to assembly polls later this year. According to the opinion poll, BJP is projected to win 47 seats, Congress may win 17 seats, AAP one seat and Others three. Percentagewise in opinion poll: BJP 48 pc, Congress 39 pc, AAP 5 pc.
Chief Minister Jairam Thakur leads the popular choice for CM with 26 pc, Congress leader Pratibha Singh with 21 pc, Congress leader Asha Kumari and Union Minister Anurag Thakur with 17-17 pc each.
WEST BENGAL
In the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had stormed to power last year, but if elections are held now, her party Trinamool Congress may retain power with reduced majority. This time, TMC may win 173 seats, BJP may win 112 seats, Congress 2, Left 2, Others five . Voting percentage in opinion poll: TMC 46 pc and BJP 41 pc. In last year’s elections, TMC had won 213 seats, BJP had won 77, Others four. Congress and Left did not win a single seat.
A whopping 46 per cent favoured Mamata Banerjee as CM choice, 24 pc opted for BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, and 20 pc favoured BJP leader Dilip Ghosh.
