that recent research shows that the strength of a storm 18 hours before landfall is the best predictor of its peak storm surge.
A storm surge of 1 to 3 meters could extend for hundreds of kilometers northeast of where the storm makes landfall. In short, Phailin is a humanitarian disaster in the making.
Despite international consensus that Phailin was among the most powerful storms ever to threaten the subcontinent, India's Meteorology Department (IMD) continued to gauge the storm's strength conservatively.
In its latest forecast, the IMD predicted sustained winds of 210-220 kph and storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (11 feet) at landfall.
These numbers are about 40 kph weaker than the JTWC's most recent forecast, and in my opinion, the storm surge could be double what IMD is predicting.
One possible explanation for this discrepancy is a difference in philosophy of interpreting satellite data.
Late Friday, one real-time storm surge gauge on the Indian coastline was already approaching 1 meter of storm surge.
